The 'Russian bear' loves warm seas

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria within a few days has stunned the entire world. We all know that sooner or later, any dictatorial regime falls and disappears like smoke or clouds in a short time. Dictators always meet a bad end. However, as far as we can see, Assad did not suffer the same fate as Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein. The Assad family is currently in Moscow, having received political asylum from Russia.

With the Assad family's flight from Syria, I experienced a sense of déjà vu, reminiscent of 2014 when former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was forced to leave Ukraine and also received political asylum in Russia. In both Syria and Ukraine, protesters or ordinary citizens entered the presidential palaces where dictators lived in luxury and opulence. They looted them. But that is not the subject of today's article.

With the overthrow of the Assad regime, Russia lost its most important ally in the Middle East. The collapse of the regime in Syria dealt a significant blow to Moscow's regional strategies and international reputation. President Assad's power crumbled in less than two weeks, despite the Russian military presence in the country, including the Hmeimim (Bassel al-Assad) airbase, the Tartus naval base, and the work of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides. Along with Assad, Russia was also defeated, and its prestige was severely damaged. This is clearly visible when we look at the headlines of several international news agencies and newspapers that reference Russia.

Al-Jazeera: "A blow to the Putin regime"

Newsweek: "Putin Is the Biggest Loser in the Fall of Assad in Syria"

CNN: "Assad's fall is a major blow to Putin and reveals the fragility of his own rule"

Le Monde: "The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad is a major defeat for Russia"

For Russia, Syria is a state where it wants to exist even if Assad is not in power. From an economic perspective, Russia's total investment in Syria exceeds 20 billion dollars. Moscow is among Damascus's main trading partners. Although the Syrian diaspora in Russia is not very large, it is quite successful economically and socially active. Even today in Syria, the strong sympathy for Russia that formed during the old Soviet era has not disappeared.

The fact that the war in Ukraine has continued for over three years, resulting in major material and moral losses for Russia, has hindered it from playing an active role in Syria. With Russia recruiting North Korean soldiers to fight in Ukraine, we can see that Moscow is struggling, primarily in terms of human resources. Russia's military-strategic weakening in Syria occurred especially after the departure of the Wagner army.

Now everyone is wondering what the fate of the Russian military bases in the Mediterranean will be. Will it be possible for Russia to maintain its positions in a country where Islamists—from groups considered terrorist organizations in the Russian Federation—have come to power (under an agreement made with the toppled government, the Russian Federation could use them until 2066)?

For now, Russia is maintaining its military presence in Syria. Western powers are even considering the possibility of removing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (banned in the Russian Federation), which is the driving force of the Syrian revolution, from the terror list. Will Russia do the same as the Westerners? We shall see.

What is interesting is that until the last few days, the Russian media was calling the armed opposition in Syria "terrorists." However, this word has disappeared from the news in Russia. The HTS group is now called the "armed opposition" or "the opposition."

Russia's policy of reaching warm seas has been a very important strategy throughout history for both geopolitical and economic reasons. This policy has been shaped as a natural consequence of Russia's geographical location. With coastlines on the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Arctic Ocean, Russia has limited maritime access for trade and power projection, especially due to its ports freezing in winter months. This situation has made the goal of reaching warm seas a strategic necessity.

In his book "Prisoners of Geography," British journalist and author Tim Marshall assessed the lack of a Russian port in warm seas as an Achilles' heel in terms of direct access to the oceans. Peter the Great had advised his descendants not to give up on advancing toward Constantinople and India. He had said, "Penetrate to the Persian Gulf, advance to India." For Russia, losing its influence in Syria also means losing its influence in the entire Middle East and even the world, including access to the region's energy resources. Russia's influence in Africa could be damaged, as it provides logistical support to the groups and regimes it backs in Africa through these bases. Russia's policy of reaching warm seas continues to be a strategy that affects both regional and global power balances. Developments in the Black Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East, in particular, clearly show that this goal of Russia persists.

If the HTS members succeed in establishing order in Syria, the possibility of Russia maintaining its presence in Syria seems high. However, if Syria follows the fate of Iraq, it is difficult to say how the major powers pursuing their own goals and interests in this area will behave or what forms things will take. This subject is open to various speculations.

Note: The term "Russian bear" is a symbol associated with Russians. It has been used since the 16th century.