The CIA's 'secret radical Islam' report: Long fasts distract from economic pursuits

Masum Gök - 12punto.com.tr

In 1987, the US intelligence agency CIA prepared a comprehensive secret report on the rise of fundamentalist Islamists in the Arab world. The report, which included significant findings for the coming years, stated: "We estimate that the Islamic (radical Islam) revival will continue to be a significant political force in the 1990s and likely beyond. Issues related to Islamic law and social practices are becoming an important part of internal political debates in most Arab countries. Although there may be disillusionment with more fundamentalist solutions over time, this will not diminish the growing sentiment among many Arabs that Islam should be shown greater respect in society, governance, and relations with the outside world, nor will it soften criticism of current leaders, political institutions, or prevailing Western cultural forms."

The findings made by the CIA in 1987 were realized step by step in the following years. Radical Islamists gradually increased their influence in the Arab geography.

THE ARAB SPRING BEGAN IN TUNISIA

The main influence identified in the CIA report as the cause of the growth of radical Islam is the income inequality experienced in Arab countries and the corruption of their leaders. The report describes the places where tensions would occur as follows:

"While more moderate religious reformers might be appeased with small changes, determined activists will likely agitate for larger changes. The imposition of greater religious orthodoxy will disturb and alarm non-Muslim communities, heterodox Islamic sects, and Westernized elites. It is likely that some or all of these problems will emerge, or have already emerged, in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, and Jordan."

The Arab Spring, supported by the US, first broke out in Tunisia, where the existing administration was toppled and the radical Islamist Ennahda party came to power. Similarly, after the protests that began in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood came to power through elections to replace the ousted Mubarak. In Bahrain, Shiites rebelled against the administration, leading to bloody clashes. Of the countries mentioned in the CIA report, only Morocco and Jordan did not experience a chaotic situation.

FATALISM IN THE CIA REPORT

There is another interesting section in the CIA report. It is also written that countries governed by Islamic rules that are not oil-rich will regress. That part of the report is as follows:

"Arab countries, especially those without large oil reserves, can only improve their economic prosperity by raising human productivity to competitive levels. In an increasingly integrated and competitive international economy, the practical application of many principles of the Islamic revival is likely to hinder development in the Arab world:

-Strict adherence to certain religious duties - prayer and long fasts - will divert time from productive economic pursuits.

-Gender segregation in the workplace will increase marginal production costs in economic enterprises.

-Restrictions on the education and employment of women will deprive Arab economies of a significant pool of potential productive talent.

-The concept of 'revealed truth' in Islamic theology will reinforce existing autocratic belief in the Arab world, likely making social and economic organization more rigid, less adaptable to changing conditions, and less willing to accept new ideas.

-Conformity will tend to be valued more than innovation.

-Fatalism, a practical if not necessary feature of Islamic society, will tend to continue to discourage initiative and personal responsibility.

-Islamic inheritance laws will increasingly divide land into smaller and less productive plots."

News Source: Masum Gök