Geology expert Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş made striking assessments regarding the earthquake expected in the Marmara region, centered in Istanbul.
Bektaş emphasized that the impact of a potential tremor cannot be explained by earthquake magnitude alone, stating that where the fault begins to rupture, which geological structures it will pause at, and the soil characteristics of residential areas will be decisive. For this reason, he pointed out that while the same earthquake might be felt to a limited extent in some regions, it could lead to much more severe consequences in other districts.
Stating that there is a possibility that the magnitude of a potential earthquake could remain in the M6.2–M6.4 range, Bektaş said that the actual risk is not limited to this. He expressed that due to the "basin effect" and soil amplification, which are particularly effective along the Avcılar line, the intensity of seismic waves could be felt at the M7 level in some places.
Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş included the following statements in his post on his social media account:
"The thin and fragile crust on the Central Marmara Ridge can break with shallow seismicity. However, the thermal barrier of the Çınarcık Basin in the east has the potential to stop the rupture; just as the 2025 Silivri earthquake stopped at the Kumburgaz Basin. Even if the magnitude of the earthquake remains at the M6.2 - M6.4 level, the danger is great. Especially the 'basin effect' and soil amplification on the Avcılar line can increase the intensity of seismic waves to the M7 level. Let us not forget; it is not the magnitude of the tremor, but the soil's response to it that causes destruction."
just as the 2025 Silivri earthquake stopped at the Kumburgaz Basin.
— Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş (@profobektas) February 8, 2026
Even if the magnitude of the earthquake remains at the M6.2 - M6.4 level, the danger is great. Especially the "basin effect" and soil amplification on the Avcılar line can increase the intensity of seismic waves to the M7 level. Let us not forget; it is not the magnitude of the tremor, but the soil's response to it that causes destruction. pic.twitter.com/Z8Hfc3jIwt
News Source: 12punto
