Earthquake warning from experts for that city! 'It could happen at any moment...'

It has been reported that there are faults around Adana, which was affected by the February 6 earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, that could produce tremors at any moment.

Adana, which experienced a 6.3-magnitude earthquake centered in the Ceyhan district in 1998, was also affected by last year's "disaster of the century." Following the February 6 earthquakes, the city also experienced a 5.5-magnitude tremor centered in Kozan on July 25, 2023.

Aftershocks also occur from time to time in Adana.

Gazi University Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering faculty member Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal stated that the issue of earthquakes has been on the agenda intensively in the city following the February 6 earthquakes, which also affected Adana.

"IT WILL AFFECT ADANA AND ITS SURROUNDINGS"

Prof. Dr. Pampal, who is also the founding president of the Gazi University Earthquake Research Center, provided the following information regarding the faults that could affect Adana:

"There are faults that will affect Adana and produce earthquakes. There are faults such as the Karataş-Yumurtalık Fault, the Misis-Andırın Fault, the İskenderun Fault, the Kozan Fault, the Savrun Fault, and the Saimbeyli Fault. Additionally, the southern extension of the Ecemiş Fault in the west, the Namrun, Ovacık, and Mut Faults, have been identified as sources of earthquake danger in Adana. These faults I mentioned are faults that will produce earthquakes between magnitudes 6 and 7. There were earthquakes in the vicinity of Kayseri in 1702, 1717, and 1845 where tens of thousands of people died. Here, there are faults that form the components of the Central Anatolian fault system, such as the Sarız Fault, Develi Fault, Erkilet Fault, Yeşilhisar Fault, and Erciyes Fault. These are all active faults. In other words, since they have been the source of 7 to 7.5-magnitude earthquakes on those faults, destroyed Kayseri, and caused tens of thousands of casualties, such earthquakes will certainly affect Adana and its surroundings, especially its northern districts."

Explaining that there are also faults in the north of Adana that form what they call the "Saimbeyli shear zone," Pampal said, "There are many faults around Kayseri. There is the Saimbeyli Fault. These can produce earthquakes that will be effective in the northern parts of Adana, they can produce destructive earthquakes. It is useful to emphasize these. Adana is not exempt from earthquake danger. It is a settlement area with high earthquake risk. In other words, there is absolutely no record saying an earthquake will happen today or tomorrow."

"THERE IS NO RECORD THAT THE SAVRUN FAULT WILL BREAK"

Describing his work on the Savrun Fault, Pampal stated, "There is no record that the Savrun Fault will break and produce an earthquake greater than 7, because I have studied this fault. It is located in my doctoral field. I worked on this fault for 2 months this summer and determined that it is not a fault that would produce an earthquake over magnitude 7, that it is fragmented and not active. In that respect, I would like to state that I do not agree with the views that 'the Savrun Fault threatens Adana'."

Pampal also spoke about other faults in the city:

"In late July, a 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in Kozan, near Minnetli. There is the Akçalıuşağı Fault just 5 kilometers from that earthquake. I had mapped that fault. That fault has the potential to produce an earthquake between 5 and 6 in magnitude, and I assess that it is the first fault that will break because it is an active fault. It has produced earthquakes in the historical period. There are ruptures in its immediate vicinity.

Aftershock activity is being recorded there. In that respect, I think the Akçalıuşağı Fault will produce the next earthquake around Adana. That could be effective in the districts in the northern parts of Adana, especially Kozan, as well as Feke, and the Sumbas and Kadirli districts of Osmaniye, but I do not think it will be very destructive, nor do I think it will be greater than magnitude 6."

PROF. DR. ÇETİN IS INVOLVED IN RESEARCH ON ACTIVE FAULT LINES

Çukurova University Faculty of Engineering, Department of Geological Engineering faculty member Prof. Dr. Hasan Çetin is involved in studies supported by TÜBİTAK, AFAD, and the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) regarding active fault lines in Adana and surrounding provinces.

Çetin is participating in activities in the Adana leg of the "fault map" project being carried out across Turkey with experts from relevant institutions. Excavations will be carried out within a year on the faults whose locations have been determined, and characterization studies regarding the activity of these faults will be completed.

Accordingly, more reliable predictions will be obtained regarding the seismicity of Adana and its surroundings, active faults, and the magnitude of earthquakes they could cause.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Çetin stated that there are active fault lines mapped by the MTA in the region, saying, "Just to our east, there is a branch of the East Anatolian Fault that separates from Türkoğlu and passes to the western side of the Amanos Mountains. This branch continues around Osmaniye and enters the sea from Yumurtalık-Karataş. It continues for some distance within the sea and extends to the western tip of Cyprus. The length of this fault in the sea is a subject that needs to be studied."

Stating that other active faults, in addition to these, could also affect the region, Çetin said, "The Toprakkale Fault is a part of the system. The Savrun Fault, located to the west, came to the fore quite a bit in the last earthquake we experienced. There are the Tufanbeyli and Saimbeyli faults. In the far west, there is the Sarız Fault and the Ecemiş Fault very close to it. These are the faults that surround us."

"CONCRETE QUALITY" WARNING FROM PROF. DR. ÇAĞATAY

Çukurova University Department of Civil Engineering, Head of the Structures Division Prof. Dr. İsmail Hakkı Çağatay also stated that in his examinations of buildings in the region, he determined that the concrete quality was low.

Expressing that concrete should be at least C25 class according to the current earthquake regulations, Çağatay said, "When you take cores from collapsed or damaged buildings, or when you examine them yourself, you see that the concrete quality of some buildings is quite low. The concrete practically crumbles and disintegrates in your hand. Normally, you can hardly break well-made concrete even with a sledgehammer. Therefore, the concrete quality is very poor. Of course, since the columns and beams that carry the building are made as reinforced concrete, concrete is an important material here because it meets the compressive strength."

Çağatay concluded his words as follows:

"Actually, the Çukurova district is considered safer in terms of ground compared to the city center in Adana because the city center of Adana has a more unfavorable ground than the northern regions, but the greatest damage occurred in this northern region. However, there is a situation where there are structures that saw no damage right next to collapsed 13-14 story buildings. When we conducted examinations on the collapsed buildings, we saw that the concrete quality was not very suitable, that it was low, and that there were errors and deficiencies in the iron workmanship.

There is a section in our current earthquake regulation regarding high-rise buildings, but there needs to be a separate standard for high-rise building standards. Again, we need to pay attention to inspection and control at all stages we will carry out in this regard. We look at the 28-day concrete strength values while our structures are being built after the project phase, but we build our structures for 50 years. Therefore, it is not enough to evaluate a structure that will serve us for 50 years by only performing a 28-day, that is, approximately 1-month, concrete strength test."

News Source: AA