Europe's new nightmare: Will events in Turkey lead to migration?

Taner BİLDİK        12punto.com.tr   

The British press has been dedicating extensive coverage to the political and economic turmoil in Turkey in recent days. In particular, the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the subsequent protests have brought one of Europe's greatest fears back to the agenda: a new wave of migration...

In a report on the subject, The Telegraph, one of the most widely read newspapers in the UK, published an interview it conducted with a human smuggler. The Sun, which carried the story to its headlines by citing the report as a source, also wrote about concerns regarding a possible wave of Turkish migrants. 

British-based newspapers, in particular, are questioning the effects of recent developments in Turkey on Europe by basing their coverage on analysts and human smugglers. 

The biggest fear for the UK is an increase in the number of people coming from Turkey among the illegal migrants crossing the English Channel. A human smuggler who spoke to The Telegraph says, "Turks are also looking for ways to flee the country now. Those who are beaten in protests or subjected to police violence will use this to seek asylum in Europe. They will present the images in the media as human rights violations and file asylum claims."

So, should a new wave of migration from Turkey really be expected? In fact, the British press's fear is unfounded. The number of people coming from Turkey to the UK in small boats has increased rapidly since 2022, exceeding an annual average of 2,000. In 2023, this number peaked at 3,058. Let the newly triggered fear add another 1,000 people to this list. It is not migration from Turkey to Europe, but a new wave of migration to Turkey that is more likely... How so?

The process that began with the arrest of İmamoğlu did not just stir up the streets; it also effectively paralyzed Turkey's economy. The Turkish Lira lost value rapidly, the stock market hit rock bottom, and investors began to flee. Turkey lost the economic recovery it had gained through interest rate policies for some time in just three or four days.

The government will now seek new emergency resources. This is because trust has been shaken both in domestic politics and on the international stage. At this point, European countries may be preparing to put a new refugee deal with Turkey on the table!

IS A REFUGEE DEAL BACK ON THE TABLE?

For years, Turkey has been keeping millions of migrants at its borders, from Syria to Afghanistan, and from Iran to Pakistan. Europe wants Turkey to continue this "refugee buffer zone" function. The migration deal signed with the EU in 2016 had reinforced Turkey's role in protecting European borders. But now, things are changing.

As economic hardship grows in Turkey, it seems inevitable that the government will ask for new financial support from Europe. According to scenarios discussed in the corridors of Brussels, the EU providing a new fund to Turkey is on the agenda. A "new deal" could be offered to Ankara, especially to further tighten the policy of keeping migrants coming from the Middle East in Turkey. So, who will be the actors of the new wave of migration that will start in the Middle East? Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq have already seen massive migration. Where will the new wave of migration come from? 

It is not Europe that will determine this migration, but the United States... The Middle East policy of the new President Donald Trump will decide whether this wave of migration occurs or not. This statement by the US President, who says, "Let the Palestinians migrate and the problem will be solved," carries the potential for over two million new migrants. If this happens, will these migrants stay in Egypt or Jordan, or will they try to set sail for Europe? 

Furthermore, the reaction Iran will give to Trump's Middle East plan will also bring a new problem. According to the statements of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, the Iranian administration is displaying an aggressive stance regarding the expansion of its nuclear capacity. When the tension between Iran and Israel is taken into account, there is no doubt that Trump's Gaza and Iran policies will work in coordination. A US intervention in the Middle East and Iran's military response to this intervention could bring a brand-new migrant problem to the agenda that is not being considered today: Iranian migrants...

WHAT WILL BE TURKEY'S ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

It is precisely these possibilities that could assign a new role to Turkey at a stage when the EU no longer has any tolerance for migrants. And it would not be surprising if a brand-new refugee proposal is placed in front of a Turkey that is squeezed economically.

What could be in the content of this deal?

• Providing billions of euros in support for Turkey to cut the flow of migration to Europe

• Turkey opening new camps for existing refugees

• Strengthening Turkish border security to prevent irregular migration to Europe

For Turkey, such a deal could provide short-term economic relief. However, it could also have a serious political cost. Because the rising economic hardships in Turkey and the increasing public reaction could make it difficult to get society to accept such an agreement.

DIFFICULT DAYS AWAIT TURKEY AND EUROPE 

In the coming period, political tensions and economic turbulence seem set to continue in Turkey. The situation of Ekrem İmamoğlu has also become an important factor that will determine Europe's perspective on Turkey. If the crisis in Turkey deepens, not only Turkey but also Europe will be dragged into a massive wave.

Now the real question is: How will Turkey survive this political and economic storm? What kind of offer will Europe present to Turkey? And most importantly, what strategy will Turkey follow in this game? Will Turkey play a buffer role in the Middle East plan of the US and Europe?

News Source: 12punto