Expert issues warning after earthquake in Sivas: That fault could produce a magnitude 7 earthquake

According to the statement made by the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), a 4.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in Sivas at around 10:33.

Mining Technology and Earth Sciences Expert Serkan İçelli made a statement following the earthquake, which caused brief panic. Stating that the earthquake occurred on a fault line described as a dead fault, İçelli said, "We have a 62-kilometer Quaternary fault extending from Hafik to İmranlı. If this fault becomes active, the probability of it producing a magnitude 7 earthquake is very high."

"THERE IS NO CAUSE FOR PANIC"

Evaluating the earthquake that occurred in Syria last night and was also strongly felt in Hatay, İçelli stated that there is no cause for panic, saying, "We experienced an earthquake in Hatay around midnight last night. That is, we experienced an earthquake in a location close to Hatay. This earthquake occurred on the Serghaya fault segment of the Dead Sea Transform. It is a segment of the Dead Sea Transform. If it had been on the Misyaf fault or if we had experienced an earthquake further south, we could have expected a major earthquake here. In other words, we could have characterized it as a foreshock. This is not a foreshock. It was an independently triggered earthquake. We do not think a larger one will follow. It can produce a maximum earthquake of around magnitude 6. I advise the people of Hatay to be at ease. There is no situation to panic about. But as we said, the Dead Sea Transform will produce an earthquake that could reach magnitude 7 in the future."

"IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AN EARTHQUAKE ABOVE 7 TO OCCUR ON THIS FAULT"

İçelli stated that there is a fault line of approximately eight kilometers between Tavra Gorge and Düzyayla, and expressed that while it is not possible for an earthquake above magnitude 7 to occur on this specific fault, he spoke as follows:

"An earthquake occurred in the Karayün location in Sivas. The Karayün fault, located 20 kilometers southeast of Sivas, is 5 kilometers long in total. This earthquake definitely does not have the characteristics of a foreshock. It occurred on a short, approximately five-kilometer break on a dead fault.

Although it appears connected to the Tecer segment, it has no connection. There are twenty kilometers between them. This earthquake actually showed us this: There are so many faults around Sivas that we describe as dead faults. We have a fault of approximately eight kilometers between Tavra Gorge and Düzyayla. While it is not possible for an earthquake above 7 to occur on this fault, earthquakes reaching 5.5-6 can still be experienced.

We also have another 23-kilometer segment from Tavra Gorge towards Düzyayla. These are faults that have not moved for the last two and a half million years. It is not clear when they will move. Just like today's earthquake. In other words, today's 4.1 magnitude earthquake occurred on a fault that we described as dead and never expected to move. We need to view these faults as if they were active and carry out our planning accordingly."

"IF WE DO NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY TODAY..."

Emphasizing that Turkey should be declared a first-degree earthquake zone, İçelli said, "If we do not take responsibility today, tomorrow our entire body will remain under that burden. Therefore, we need to declare all of Turkey a first-degree earthquake zone and carry out our planning accordingly. We have a very long, 62-kilometer Quaternary fault around Sivas, from Hafik to İmranlı. If this fault becomes active, the probability of it producing a magnitude 7 earthquake is again very high."

News Source: İHA