Former Chief of General Staff Intelligence Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin explains: What will be Iran's response to Israel? Will World War III break out in the Middle East?

Burak DEMİRBAŞ-12punto.com.tr /EXCLUSIVE

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran, has escalated regional tensions to the highest level.

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated, "The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime has saddened us by martyring our dear guest in our home, but it has also prepared a heavy punishment for itself."

Turkey, while condemning the process at the presidential level, declared a one-day (02.08.2024) National Mourning.

'I DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A LARGE-SCALE ATTACK'

Former Chief of General Staff Intelligence Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin evaluated the process and regional tension for 12punto. Stating that it would be difficult for Iran to target Israel directly, Pekin noted the following:

"We need to look at whether Iran will retaliate directly itself, or through Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, or the Popular Mobilization Forces. On the surface, it appears that Iran will prefer the second path. Can Iran target Israel directly? I don't think it can handle it in a way that would make a huge impact. It could carry out raids with 1-2 missile attacks on Israel, through its proxies, and through its elements in the region. It could raid US bases. I don't think there will be a much larger-scale attack."

Discussions about World War III, which have been ongoing for a long time, have resurfaced with the Haniyeh assassination. Pekin made the following assessments regarding World War III:

WHAT IS THE US'S GOAL?

"World War III will not start from here. What is being tried to be prevented here is this; both the US, Israel, and Europe think that a regional war should not break out. It would not be in the interest of Iran, nor Europe and the West. Some say, 'The US wants a big war,' I don't think so.

The US is looking to freeze the war in some way and move forward politically. Its most important goal is the Asia-Pacific issue. It does not want to fragment its forces and power. In this region, it will protect Israel clearly and unequivocally. I estimate that it will continue until it establishes the order that will protect Israel, including the establishment of a PYD/PKK state in Syria within this order, and then withdraw from there. Because the US has two major problems. The first is to block China. The second is its own internal problems. After the elections, things will get much more complicated inside the US. Whoever wins, they will be preoccupied with themselves internally. That is why it is trying to adjust the order. The US needs to keep Russia, China, and the UK in check externally, and ensure its own control internally."

ASIA-PACIFIC LINE

There will be no World War III without a total war. When there is a total war, they will divide into 2 or 3 sides. Can it happen in the way we know? Whether nuclear weapons will be used is a question mark. Cyberattacks may increase. Where could it happen? It could be in the Asia-Pacific. China, Japan, and Korea are in that region.

The US has very serious trade there. If the US cannot prevent that capital from going to the Asia-Pacific, then a war will break out. If a war breaks out there, nuclear weapons could be used. We are still very far from that, and no country is militarily or economically ready.

I think about it from time to time; brand new weapons have emerged. There are unmanned aerial vehicles, how will they change the war and its nature? They fire; they put pressure on the other side and use infantry, which causes a lot of casualties. In the past, maneuvering was used a lot. The Great Offensive is a maneuver, the wars Napoleon fought are maneuvers. Today's developing technology sees everything. Looking at it this way, we don't know what the nature of the next war will be. We need to see what kind of war methods will be used."

Following the Haniyeh assassination, while Syria condemned the attack at the highest level, it described it as a "terrorist attack." Pekin, who also gave warnings regarding the recent normalization steps between Syria and Turkey—one of Israel's natural targets—and what Turkey should do in the region, stated that Turkey should strengthen the Syrian Central Government and spoke as follows:

'SYRIA IS HEADING TOWARDS DISINTEGRATION'

"What Turkey needs to do is to strengthen the Syrian Central Government a little bit. We cannot dominate Syria. It is the Syrian Central Government that will bring the Syrian people into line. In that respect, we need to improve relations with Syria. We need to improve relations with Russia, Iraq, and Iran in the Black Sea and the South Caucasus. This position of Turkey benefits the US. The US exerts pressure on Assad through us. Thus, Assad cannot control some regions in his own country. One of these regions is the area where the PKK/PYD wants to establish a statelet. As long as we remain like this, it is to Turkey's disadvantage. Both border security and the establishment of a statelet in this region. The US is imposing sanctions and Syria is heading towards disintegration. Turkey needs to talk. Syria remaining like this works against Turkey. It works in favor of the US and the PKK/PYD.

Instead of fueling the fight, we need to bring Iran, Syria, and Iraq together, talk to Russia, and keep relations warm."

'WE ARE WORKING IN THE INTEREST OF THE US IN THE REGION'

"Our shortcoming is that we get stuck on one thing. Thus, we cannot find room for maneuver. They tell us, 'You will either be like this or like that.' If Turkey had developed its own unique policies, it would have provided room for maneuver in foreign policy. We took sides in many places. We are currently working in the interest of the US in the region."

'IT IS NOT APPROPRIATE TO PRESENT IT AS A PROBLEM'

Finally, regarding Turkey's National Mourning decision, Pekin commented: "This is a decision made by the government. Turkey has been behind Hamas from the beginning. Ismail Haniyeh has come to Turkey many times as the Political Bureau Chief. An atmosphere of 'let's stand behind Hamas' was created in Turkey as well. Therefore, it is very natural to lower the flag to half-mast and declare mourning. The President clearly said, 'These are not terrorists, they are defending their own homeland.' Whether you approve of their actions or not is a separate issue, but they are trying to build a homeland for themselves. I don't think it is appropriate to present this issue as a problem."

News Source: Burak Demirbaş