A plan made years ago is becoming reality: Syria to be divided into 5

Following the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, Ahmed Shara, who took charge of the interim government, took a critical step regarding the country's administration before officially starting his duties.

SECURITY PLAN DIVIDED INTO 5 REGIONS The interim government led by Shara is preparing to divide Syria into 5 separate security zones based on geography and ethnicity. This restructuring aims to execute operational powers in the country more quickly. However, it remains unclear whether the plan introduces a federal structure or is merely a temporary solution.

NEW LIFE FOR AN OLD PLAN: THE 2011 TABLE IS BACK

The emerging map largely overlaps with the partition plans discussed at the table between the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. According to a report by Nefes newspaper columnist Murat Gürgen, the Shara administration's plan means the de facto implementation of the “5 regions, 5 administrations” model that was opened for discussion in those years.

ETHNIC AND MILITARY DISTRIBUTION OF THE REGIONS

The planned security zones have been shaped according to both ethnic distribution and military control areas:

Eastern Region: Hasakah, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor, where the YPG/SDF, the Syrian branch of the PKK, remains active, have been included in this region.

Northern Region: The west of Aleppo and the Idlib province were included in this classification due to their Turkmen density. It also covers areas where the Turkish Armed Forces have base regions.

Coastal Region: This region, covering the cities of Tartus and Latakia, is planned to be left to the Russian-backed Arab Alawites.

Central Region: The cities of Homs and Hama, where Sunni Arabs are in the majority, are located in this region.

Southern Region: Consisting of Daraa, As-Suwayda, and Quneitra, this region includes areas inhabited by the Druze population.

The most striking detail on the map is that the capital, Damascus, has been positioned in the “Southern Region” instead of the “Central Region.” Allegations have surfaced that this arrangement was made specifically in line with the demands of the US and Israel. Diplomatic sources state that this classification of Damascus could be a sign of a new geopolitical fracture.

Although it is argued that the regional division will not completely strip the central government of its powers and that such a structure is planned only for security and operational coordination, it is unclear how this will work in practice. For the Shara administration to implement this plan, armed groups, primarily the SDF, must lay down their arms and a national army must be established across the country.