Does the earthquake threat in the Marmara region persist? A critical warning from Naci Görür

Istanbul woke up on the morning of April 23 to a 6.2 magnitude earthquake, followed by hundreds of aftershocks. While schools in Istanbul were closed for two days following the earthquake, thousands of people spent the night in parks and gardens.

As experts continue to warn citizens about potential risks following the earthquake, striking warnings have once again come from Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür. Pointing to the Kumburgaz Fault, Görür stated, "These earthquakes that have occurred have not released the energy, nor have they eliminated the threat of the fault within the Marmara. On the contrary, they have increased the threat even further."

Görür also reacted to the statements of other earthquake experts, saying, "A scientifically logical period can be stated. Otherwise, you cannot say that an earthquake will happen on a specific day, year, or month. This is fortune-telling; it is shameful. It is not being a scientist."

Drawing attention to the location of the aftershocks, Görür noted that they were concentrated to the east of the April 23 earthquake and said this situation could cause the Adalar Fault to remain under greater stress.

"If larger earthquakes occur after this, it will break from the root."

Highlights from the warnings Görür made during a Kafa TV broadcast are as follows:

"We were expecting it because while we were shouting in 1999, the crust under the Marmara was loaded; energy was transferred. Therefore, we stood up and said 'prepare Istanbul for an earthquake' in the sense that it brought forward the earthquake that will happen in the Marmara region and triggered it."

HE DREW ATTENTION TO 3 FAULT LINES

"The northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault is inside the Marmara; it is 160 kilometers long and consists of 3 branches. The first is the Adalar Fault, the Kumburgaz Fault, and the Tekirdağ Fault. If the Adalar and Kumburgaz break together, it will be at most 7.6; we say the Tekirdağ Fault has already broken. The 1912 Şarköy Earthquake broke this fault. Therefore, the earthquakes this fault will create are like that. Earthquakes occur constantly in the West of the Marmara. The Kumburgaz fault caused a magnitude 5 earthquake. My explanation is that this fault is already a live fault; this fault is accumulating energy. It can leak energy through small slips in certain zones on the fault once it has accumulated enough. That is the situation. This magnitude 5 earthquake also occurred on this fault, where the rupture took place. It is a small fault; I said this is an indication that energy is being loaded onto the Kumburgaz Fault and that it is leaking energy over time. Everyone in the scientific world accepts this. The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that happened today is no different. One happened with a smaller movement and energy distribution, the other was a bit larger. But these earthquakes that have occurred have not released the energy, nor have they eliminated the threat of the fault within the Marmara. On the contrary, they have increased the threat even further. The Kumburgaz Fault is already accumulating stress equivalent to 2.5 centimeters per year. Now, with what reason and logic is it a pity to say 'an earthquake won't happen here, it won't happen there'? Do not play with the lives of millions of people. I mean, this is engaging in absurdity."

"It triggers, that is where the real trouble is. The length of the Kumburgaz Fault is 65-70 kilometers. If 30 kilometers of this has broken, it means 70 kilometers have not yet broken. On the contrary, because it started breaking from the tip, it is becoming increasingly strained. And I say; this earthquake caused the fault to become more strained, caused energy to be transferred, and brought forward the period of earthquake production. Be even more careful. It causes a certain reduction, but it is never something that will shrink the earthquake we are expecting."

IS IT POSSIBLE FOR IT TO BREAK PIECE BY PIECE?

"Theoretically, this is possible. When you look at the behavior of the earth, historical earthquakes, and previous behavior patterns, there is no reason for it to break piece by piece. In geology, everything is the result of a probability; it is always possible. The most accurate and common probability works. Therefore, it is very natural that it will repeat the same behavior pattern as it did in 1766 and 1509."

REACTION TO EARTHQUAKE EXPERTS

"A scientifically logical period can be stated. Otherwise, you cannot say that an earthquake will happen on a specific day, year, or month. This is fortune-telling; it is shameful. It is not being a scientist."

"Since 1999, the probability of this earthquake happening at any moment is 47 percent. This is still valid today. The world only listens like this. Otherwise, if I say 'I knew it, I said so,' they smile slightly. I respect the friend who says this, but it is not scientific. If you say you know something, you have to speak based on data accepted by the whole world. You are not talking to a carpenter or a butcher... You are talking to the scientific world."

"The occurrence of aftershocks is important for us. Where they are concentrated is important. Now, most of the aftershocks were lined up to the east of the earthquake that happened on April 23. If larger earthquakes occur after this, it will break from the root."

"There is a certain angle between the Kumburgaz Fault and the Adalar Fault. Strike-slip faults carry energy toward their ends. Energy will accumulate at the eastern end and will put more pressure on the Adalar Fault. Whether the Adalar Fault yields to this pressure or not, it will break at the same time. It already happened like this in 1766. I think it will break at the same time. There is a live fault system under the Marmara. I saw it by diving myself. What can I do if a man who has never touched sea water with his feet and does not know the Sea of Marmara is talking?"