Important warnings on the anniversary of February 6: Naci Görür reveals the cities with the highest earthquake risk

Today marks the second anniversary of the February 6 Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes. According to official figures, 53 thousand 537 people lost their lives in the disaster.

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür evaluated the 2nd anniversary of the major earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023. Speaking to NTV, Görür said, "We must create earthquake-resistant cities," and announced the 3 provinces with the most imminent earthquake danger.

Regarding the anxiously awaited Great Marmara Earthquake, Görür noted that there is a 47 percent probability of an earthquake occurring at any moment within 30 years.

HOW TO CREATE EARTHQUAKE-RESISTANT CITIES?

Görür gave the following answer to the question "What has changed in 2 years?":

"Of course, we have done a lot to repair what was destroyed. We did it to return to the old situation. Returning to the old situation is not what saves us. What we want to do is ensure our city does not collapse in an earthquake. Daily life should not change either. Our main goal for this is to create earthquake-resistant cities. What we have done in 2 years does not go beyond patching up wounds."

Stating that "The new path lies in minimizing the potential damages of the earthquake before it happens," Görür said that Japan, Taiwan, China, and the USA have done this.

"DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DO NOT SACRIFICE LIVES TO EARTHQUAKES"

Naci Görür said, "Societies where knowledge and technology are developed do not sacrifice human lives to earthquakes. We are wasting tens of thousands. It is necessary to turn away from this strategy and understanding. Healing wounds and preparing for an earthquake are not the same thing. Earthquake preparedness requires special work, technologies, knowledge, contracting, and planning."

"THE FEBRUARY 6 EARTHQUAKES WERE NOT A SURPRISE"

Stating that "The earthquake in the Southeast was not a surprise for us," Görür continued as follows:

"We were expecting this earthquake and we were saying it. Everyone, including local government, central government, and the public, knew it. If the local governments in the Southeast had intensively carried out the work to prepare this place for an earthquake, let's say, what is the difference between '99 and 2023? Would so many of our people have died? We chased after 3-5 contractors. We are all guilty."

Stating that accepting Turkey as an earthquake country is the healthiest way, Naci Görür said, "Let's not deceive ourselves; there is no need to divide it by saying there are few earthquakes here and many there, and prevent people from taking precautions. Turkey is an earthquake zone; an earthquake of any magnitude can happen anywhere at any time. We have to build earthquake-resistant cities and villages."

"IT IS POSSIBLE TO PREPARE FOR AN EARTHQUAKE BY ACTIVATING THE STATE'S EXISTING ORGANS"

Stating that when an earthquake occurs in Taiwan, 3-5 people die by chance, Görür said, "In our country, tens of thousands, fifty thousands are lost. We have buried nearly 150 thousand of our people. Let's come to our senses now. Let's unite. Let's solve the earthquake issue through science and technology. It doesn't even require much money. It is possible to prepare for an earthquake by activating the state's existing organs. There is no need to establish new general directorates or departments."

Stating that the public should not build illegal buildings that are contrary to earthquake standards, Naci Görür said, "The right material must be used. I need to educate for this. I can reach schools and villagers through the national education directorate of that province. There is no need for money or wealth. There is a need to act together."

WHICH PROVINCES ARE UNDER EARTHQUAKE RISK?

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür gave the following answer to the question "Where is the most imminent danger?":

"The place where the Yedisu fault is located between Erzincan and Bingöl Karlıova... That is, Bingöl Karlıova, as well as the Tunceli region and the eastern parts of Erzincan, are among the places where we foresee an earthquake. Because the last earthquake here occurred in the 1790s. This fault produces an earthquake every 250 years, and the 250 years have been filled. So it's coming to the 2030s or so. When this place produces an earthquake, Erzincan and Bingöl Pülümür will be damaged."

Secondly, drawing attention to the area between Bingöl Karlıova and Bingöl Göynük, Görür said, "An earthquake occurred here around 1866-1860. This place did not break. Thirdly, the Arabian plate moved northward with a displacement of nearly 10 meters in the last major earthquakes. The East Anatolian fault broke. However, the Bitlis-Zagros suture zone did not produce an earthquake. Adıyaman, Siirt, Diyarbakır, and Hakkari have become compressed. The earthquake may have been brought forward. If we think of a place waiting for an earthquake, we should not ignore this place either."

"PROBABILITY OF AN EARTHQUAKE IN MARMARA IS 47 PERCENT"

Stating that an earthquake is definitely expected in the Marmara Region, Görür continued:

"We are not even discussing that. All data shows that there will be an earthquake larger than 7 in the Sea of Marmara. The American Parsons and his colleagues conducted a study on when the earthquake might occur; they examined historical earthquakes and said that the probability of an earthquake larger than 7 in Marmara, occurring at any moment since '99, was initially 64 percent, and they revised it to 47 percent last year. This means that the probability of an earthquake occurring in this region within 30 years is 47 percent. This is a very high probability. There is no joking about this. We must immediately prepare this region for an earthquake."

"A MINISTRY OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED"

Stating that it is said that more than 60 percent of the building stock in the region is not earthquake-resistant, Naci Görür said, "If this region collapses, if the place that provides nearly 60 percent of Turkey's gross national product collapses, all of Turkey will fall to its knees. Neither economic nor political independence will remain; this is a real survival issue. Do not forget the earthquake. If we prepare for the earthquake 24 hours a day without stopping, preferably by establishing a ministry, and start from the earthquake zones, we can make all of Turkey earthquake-resistant in 20 years. We will build fewer roads and bridges, but we will concentrate on earthquake preparedness and the safety of our people's lives."