It had come to the agenda once again after the Van earthquake... Commentary on the Marmara earthquake from an expert!

The earthquakes that occurred in the Tuşba district of Van have brought the expected potential major earthquake in the Marmara region, particularly in Istanbul, back to the agenda.

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, a retired professor from the Department of Geological Engineering at Karadeniz Technical University known for his commentary on earthquakes and earth sciences, made notable assessments in a post on his social media account.

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş noted the following in his 5-point post:

“The 1999 İzmit earthquake provided relief to Istanbul''

Why?

1- The earthquake hazard in Istanbul is based on the stress transfer of earthquakes migrating westward from Erzincan. However, after Bolu, seismicity continued not on the North Branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), where Istanbul is located, but on the South Branch.

2- The 1912 Mürefte Earthquake, through stress transfer, produced the 1975-2003-2014 earthquake series toward the Aegean, and the 1963 Adalar-1999 İzmit-1999 Düzce earthquake series toward Istanbul, thereby relieving the Main Marmara Fault.

3- Small to medium earthquakes between the Tekirdağ and Çınarcık basins rupture eastward just like major earthquakes (Xiang Chen et al., 2025).

4- The West-Central Marmara creep zone, which acted as a barrier that stopped the 1912 earthquake rupture, assumed the role of stress transfer that triggered the 1963 Adalar earthquake.

5- As in the past, Marmara has entered a period of relative calm following a major earthquake.”