Some were already scrap! The destination for Turkey's S-400s has been revealed: Will sanctions be lifted?

Turkey purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia for 2.5 billion dollars in 2019, amidst a diplomatic crisis with Western countries, primarily the US. Following the 34 martyrs in Idlib, Ankara turned to Putin and purchased this missile defense system, leading to its exclusion from the US F-35 program.

However, facing the threat of US sanctions, Turkey has not yet used the S-400s. Now, the possibility of sending these systems, which have been kept in storage, to Syria is on the agenda.

WILL SANCTIONS BE LIFTED?

According to reports by Sözcü, Turkey's plan to transfer the S-400s to Syria aims to escape US CAATSA sanctions. However, Washington states that such a move would not be enough to lift the sanctions. Democratic Representative Brad Schneider and Republican Representative Gus Bilirakis from the US Congress stated that sending the S-400s to Syria would jeopardize not only Turkey-US relations but also the regional balance.

THREAT TO ISRAEL'S REGIONAL SUPERIORITY

US lawmakers state that if the S-400s are sent to Syria, Israel's military superiority would be seriously harmed. The potential for these systems, which would be deployed in Western Syria, to block Israeli airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah could mean forcing Israel to abandon its security policies in the region. This situation could endanger the delicate balance between Israel and Turkey.

WHO WILL HAVE CONTROL?

Another major concern is who will maintain control of the S-400s. If the system remains under the control of Turkish personnel, this could increase the risk of a direct conflict with Israel. However, transferring control to the fundamentalist Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria could create other strategic and military risks. US officials point out that both scenarios would lead to “chaotic results.”

WARNING FROM RUSSIA: END-USER CERTIFICATE

In his statement regarding Turkey's potential transfer of the S-400s to Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov drew attention to the “end-user certificate” included in the contract. Lavrov stated that according to this certificate, the system can only be used by Turkey and cannot be used even if transferred to a third country. This creates legal obstacles to the activation of the S-400s in another country.

The range of the S-400s that Turkey received in 2019 can reach up to 400 km. Furthermore, this system has the capacity to destroy both manned and unmanned aerial vehicles as well as ballistic missiles. Its maximum altitude is 30 km, and it has the ability to engage 80 targets simultaneously. However, this advanced technology has not been used so far, and Turkey has been unable to get rid of the S-400s in its diplomatic negotiations with Washington.

After purchasing the S-400s, Turkey was removed from the US F-35 fighter jet program and suffered a loss of 1 billion dollars in investment. Additionally, due to an arms embargo, it has been unable to purchase new F-16 fighter jets. This situation once again reveals the serious consequences of the S-400 agreement Turkey made with Russia.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE MISSILE'S LOCATION CHANGES?

US CAATSA sanctions are based not only on the purchase of the system but also on its use. Members of the US Congress have warned that changing the location of the system would dilute the US sanctions policy and set a bad precedent worldwide. It is stated that even if the status of the S-400s in Turkey changes, Turkey would not be able to escape the violation.