'I expect Turkey to conduct a ground operation into Syria': 'The dark period has ended'

Stating that the dark period in Syria has been left behind with the departure of Assad, Prof. Dr. Ülger said, "A minority dictatorship had been in power since 1963, and the regime collapsed last week as a result of the collective action of nearly two dozen opposition groups.

Thus, Syria has left the dark period behind. In the final period of the regime, three options were being discussed. The first was the dominance of a reformist approach under Assad's administration, with the opposition having the opportunity to be represented in power.

The second was the establishment of an alternative national unity government, based on political unity and territorial integrity. The third was that Syria would be divided into several pieces in the post-Assad era," he said.

"THERE IS A TERRORIST STRUCTURE UNDER US PROTECTION"

Stating that the first option has been ruled out, Ülger said, "As of now, the possibility of preserving the country's integrity is decreasing day by day, despite maintaining its existence. Because it has become certain that there will be no Alawite administration in the Latakia-Tartus region. Israel is trying to create a buffer zone with attacks around the Golan Heights, but it should not be interpreted as an expansion of an Israeli occupation on Syrian soil.

In the coming period, there is a strong possibility of moving towards a peace agreement both in Gaza and in Lebanon, where a ceasefire was previously reached. This should be read as an effort to gain an advantage in the interim period in Syria.

The most important obstacle and the issue that poses a danger to the country's political unity and territorial integrity for the future is the east of the Euphrates. There is a terrorist structure in the east of the Euphrates under US protection, and if it is to be integrated into the central government in the coming period, the terrorist elements must be cleared from there. If this does not happen, it could create a conflict, and the duration of this in the coming period will again be shaped depending on the American administration, but the picture is quite clear," he said.

"I EXPECT TURKEY TO CONDUCT A GROUND OPERATION INTO SYRIA"

Evaluating Turkey's operations in Syria, Prof. Dr. Ülger said, "The Free Syrian Army, supported by Turkey, cleared terrorist elements from Tel Rifaat last week, and Manbij was similarly cleared of YPG terrorist elements two days ago. It is possible to expand this over a wide area in the east of the Euphrates in the coming period. Arab tribes in Deir ez-Zor reacted against the oppression. Deir ez-Zor has also been liberated. In the coming period, I expect Turkey to conduct a ground operation into Syria in the missing parts of the buffer zone. Firstly, there is an American base in Ayn al-Arab, and secondly, in Qamishli and Hasakah. At the same time, they are negotiating with Turkey," he stated.

"THEY CANNOT STAND BEHIND TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS"

Stating that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd James Austin had been in contact with Turkey in recent weeks, Ülger said, "Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, 'We understand Turkey's right to self-defense and its fight against terrorism. We view it with understanding. However, we are concerned about whether the Syrian Democratic Forces, with whom we cooperate in the fight against ISIS, will be negatively affected by a conflict.' In other words, what they cannot say openly is this: they cannot stand behind terrorist organizations as strongly as they used to.

I think that with the Trump administration, one of two options will come to the fore. The first is the option of Trump, as a leader with a mercantilist commercial perspective, withdrawing his troops from this geography.

The second is that if the American deep state, the CIA, and the Pentagon persuade him, or if they try to resist, the terrorist elements might hold on for a limited time. However, in the long run, I do not believe that a terrorist element will be able to survive there in the face of Turkey's determination," he said.

"THEY ARE TRYING TO ESTABLISH A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT"

Stating that Syria is going through a transition period, Ülger said, "Problems are emerging, but so far they seem to be acting with extreme restraint and consensus. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is the largest organization, but there are nearly two dozen other organizations behind it. Among these opposition groups is the Free Syrian Army, which is also supported by Turkey. They are trying to establish a national unity government.

Based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254, the determination of Syria's new state structure, as well as the preparation of a constitution and holding elections, will be discussed in the coming period. Looking at it generally, as in every interim period, there will be partial problems and difficulties, but the public's collective stance against Bashar Assad causes the transformation to take place more moderately. In other words, bloody conflicts did not occur.

The dissolution of groups and units loyal to Assad paved the way for this process to take place within a more moderate framework," he stated.

News Source: İHA