Istanbul earthquake warning from Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş: Stress may be accumulating in this region

Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş drew attention to the Çınarcık Basin in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara during discussions on the Istanbul earthquake. Bektaş stated that this region should be evaluated as one of the priority research areas not only in terms of the Main Marmara Fault but also regarding the fault system that forms the basin.

According to Bektaş's assessment, some earthquake sequences in the Northern Marmara may have transferred stress from west to east, while the 1935 Marmara Island and 1999 İzmit earthquakes may have transferred it from east to west. It was stated that the Çınarcık Basin, which lies between these two-way stress transfers, is a structure sensitive to stress changes in terms of fault mechanics.

If this hypothesis is correct, the weak faults bounding the Çınarcık Basin could produce moderate-magnitude earthquakes similar to the 1963 Adalar (M6+) earthquake in the past.

Bektaş also evaluated the concentration of aftershocks on the edges of the Çınarcık Basin following the 1999 and 2025 earthquakes as one of the observational findings supporting this stress model.

earthquake in the past.

For this reason, the Çınarcık area south of Istanbul should be one of the priority research areas not only in terms of the main fault but also in terms of the fault system that forms the basin. pic.twitter.com/Nmb0pyHElG

— Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş (@profobektas) July 2, 2026

WHERE IS THE ÇINARCIK BASIN?

The Çınarcık Basin is known as a submarine depression located south of Istanbul, in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara, between the Princes' Islands and the coast of Çınarcık in Yalova. This area, which is associated with the active segments of the North Anatolian Fault Line, is considered one of the deepest points of the Sea of Marmara.

The region starts from the exit of the Gulf of İzmit in the east and extends to the East Marmara Ridge in the west. In previous assessments by Bektaş, it was also emphasized that plate movement could be shared not only along the Main Marmara Fault but also among the faults around the Çınarcık, Central Marmara, and Tekirdağ basins.

News Source: 12punto