Latest poll in Istanbul released! 'İmamoğlu is ahead, but...'

Turkey will head to the polls for local elections on March 31, 2024.

In Istanbul, one of the cities where the critical elections are most anticipated, the race is expected to be between the CHP candidate, incumbent Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the AKP candidate, Murat Kurum.

As the elections approach, public opinion research companies are accelerating their polling efforts, and researcher-author Bekir Ağırdır has evaluated the latest survey results.

In his article for T24 titled 'The course of the local election focused on Istanbul: How does the advantage lie with İmamoğlu?', Ağırdır said, "The electorate is resentful and bewildered. The cost of living, especially the volatility in food and restaurant prices, is reducing the food on the table. Price increases in services where there is no competition or choice, such as education, health, rent, and energy, threaten the household's peace and order. On the other hand, the rift between real-life troubles and the agenda and topics of politics is growing larger every day."

'OPPOSITION VOTERS ARE HOPE-TIRED'

Here is an excerpt from Ağırdır's article:

"Although the voters of the ruling bloc have the moral superiority of winning the presidential election in the general elections, they are reluctant to show the excitement and desire for action that would reflect that moral superiority on the streets due to the tension in the economy and the country.

Opposition voters, on the other hand, are hopeless; moreover, the dissolution of all three alliances in the opposition, the cynicism of the opposition parties, and especially the fiasco and debates exposed during the CHP's candidate selection process, are multiplying their hopelessness and fatigue.

Opposition voters are as tired of hope as they are tired of elections. Even hoping is difficult for opposition voters.

Because of this social psychology, the excitement of the local elections can only be seen on screens and in the candidate posters and flags on the streets."

'NEW WELFARE PARTY COULD REACH 5-6 PERCENT VOTE SHARE'

If the YRP insists on its candidate, there will be a significant reduction in Murat Kurum's potential votes. The opportunity for the YRP is its potential to be an address for conservative voters who are bewildered by the government's economic policies but are distant from leftist rhetoric and have strong anti-CHP and anti-DEM sentiments because their negative identity feelings prevail. Because of this potential, when looking at research findings, while the total votes of the AK Party and MHP are stuck in the 40-42 percent band nationwide and the 38-40 percent band in Istanbul, the YRP could reach a 5-6 percent vote share in Istanbul. This would mean a reduction in Murat Kurum's potential votes, and even if İmamoğlu cannot reach his maximum potential due to the distribution between candidates in the opposition bloc, it would be a vote share that would cause Kurum to lose.

"İMAMOĞLU IS 2.5 POINTS AHEAD, BUT..."

In the polls published so far, as you can see in the graph, İmamoğlu has been ahead from the beginning. The pattern provided by the 27 published studies highlights the following points.

Although the gap between İmamoğlu and Kurum seemed to narrow between January 25 and February 17, the race has turned in favor of İmamoğlu since February 17.

While the vote gap between İmamoğlu and Kurum appears to be between 1.5 and 5 points in different studies, according to calculations, the gap has averaged 2.5 points in favor of İmamoğlu since February 21. This rate corresponds to approximately 250 thousand Istanbul voters. When compared to the March 31, 2019 election results, which were neck-and-neck and won by İmamoğlu with 15 thousand votes, today's point difference is a success for İmamoğlu despite all the restrictions, but it is undoubtedly not a result that guarantees the outcome 23 days from now.

Let me also note that this fundamental observation still holds true. Voter transition between blocs is still quite low; the movement is not between the pro-government and opposition blocs, but essentially between parties within the same bloc. The second observation is that, contrary to the rest of the country, the political balance in Istanbul is 52-48 in favor of the opposition. Therefore, the first determining factor that will change the rates is the turnout rate of voters in each bloc."

News Source: 12punto