Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Faculty of Mines, Department of Geological Engineering faculty member Prof. Dr. Cenk Yaltırak announced that the major earthquake expected in the Marmara region will occur by 2065 at the latest. However, stating that this timeframe should not lead to complacency, Yaltırak pointed out that the earthquake could even happen tomorrow.
Yaltırak stated that the three-dimensional fault map created in the depths of the Sea of Marmara allows for the calculation of recurrence intervals of earthquakes in the region and the accumulated stress. Noting that there is a significant risk, especially on the East Marmara fault, Yaltırak said that the simultaneous rupture of multiple fault segments could lead to a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.
Touching upon the urban transformation process, Yaltırak argued that current practices have turned into "rent-seeking transformation" and that wholesale demolition decisions, especially in neighborhoods with old buildings, are wrong. Stating that each building's own risk analysis should be conducted, Yaltırak emphasized that this approach would save national wealth and preserve the city's historical fabric.
TSUNAMI RISK AND SCIENTIFIC STUDIES
Stating that submarine landslides in the Sea of Marmara could lead to a tsunami following an earthquake, Yaltırak recalled that the 6-meter waves that breached the walls in Samatya in 1509 were the result of such a landslide. He announced that MATAM will examine these landslides to model tsunami risks and share the obtained data with the public.
Prof. Dr. Yaltırak, touching upon the importance of working for the public good, said, "I receive a salary from the state, but I am not doing anything for the country; I am doing it for myself. This is something contrary to my understanding of the state and my ideological perspective." He emphasized that MATAM will present all data in a publicly accessible manner and that everyone will be able to access this information.
News Source: 12punto
