Local election assessment from MAK owner Kulat: The YRP effect!

Mehmet Ali Kulat, owner of MAK Consulting, spoke to Sözcü columnist Aytunç Erkin.

With 18 days left until the local elections and the political agenda heating up, Kulat said the following:

"THE POSSIBILITY OF FALLING BELOW 45 PERCENT..."

“The harsh rhetoric used by social media close to the AK Party against the New Welfare Party (YRP) is only uniting YRP supporters more. The AKP is making a mistake here,” said Kulat, adding, "When looking at the Turkey average, I see the possibility that the votes of the People's Alliance, which received 52 percent in the presidential election, could fall below 45 percent."

THEY WILL SHARE ANOTHER POLL

Kulat continued:

The opposition has fragmented, while the People's Alliance stands firm. For example, in Istanbul, for Ekrem İmamoğlu to win this election under normal conditions—since his own party's votes are not enough—he needed to receive votes from the IYI Party and DEM. Both parties have fielded their own candidates. Therefore, he needs to increase his vote share by 8-10 points. This situation is the same in Ankara. However, it turned out that the situation is not as thought. They fielded candidates, but it was seen that those candidates could not take their base with them. If the IYI Party has an eight-point vote share, it is understood that it cannot carry 4 percent of it. Or the situation of the DEM Party. It is understood that three-quarters of the DEM Party's vote share in Istanbul, which reaches 10 percent, is going to İmamoğlu. (We will announce our poll study again one week before the election.)

WHAT IS THE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE'S VOTE SHARE?

The AKP-MHP is a bloc. But something else has emerged here: The YRP is causing serious damage to the AKP, especially in Anatolia. We are currently working on provinces outside the metropolitan areas; in many places, there is a situation of winning or challenging the election. The IYI Party did not win a single metropolitan municipality last term. The IYI Party will only be able to maintain its vote share. It is seen as having a chance in Ordu, Nevşehir, and Iğdır. It is a very different election. When looking at the Turkey average, I see the possibility that the votes of the People's Alliance, which received 52 percent in the presidential election, could fall below 45 percent. The AK Party had received 35 percent, and the MHP had its own votes. I think that because the MHP supports AKP candidates in many places and the YRP has broken away from the alliance, their votes will fall below 45 percent.

WARNING TO THE AKP AGAINST HARDENING

If the AK Party hardens its campaign further, it would be a big mistake. The President is careful, but the social media side supporting the AK Party does not stop. If they harden their stance a bit more, the YRP base will also close ranks. Erbakan's party has a characteristic: it consists largely of voters who are offended and angry at the AK Party. It is not easy to win over offended and angry voters. As I said; if this rhetoric hardens...

"IF THEY SAY 'WE WILL VOTE FOR OUR OWN CANDIDATES'...."

There is still time until the election and there is no gap. Ekrem İmamoğlu and Murat Kurum are well-known candidates, but the others do not have that level of recognition. They also started their election campaigns after the 20th of the month. One issue is important: I still do not understand what the DEM Party will do. So far, they are not doing any work in Istanbul, and this benefits İmamoğlu. But the DEM works online. If an instruction is given at the last minute and they say 'We will vote for our own candidate,' the situation will change. The calculations will be turned upside down.

"THERE IS ANGER OVER THE UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF POVERTY"

Stating that “economic suspicion has been effective in every period, but it is more burning this time,” Kulat said, “There is anger among the elderly voter group, which is the AK Party's most loyal voter group. The anger is not just about not being given money. It is also about the uneven distribution. They feel that civil servant retirees were given more while worker retirees were given less. People don't say anything about equality in poverty, but there is anger when there is an uneven distribution in poverty. They see that a certain segment is receiving a smaller share than another segment, and they are angry.”

News Source: 12punto