MAK Research President answers: Who is ahead in the Ekrem İmamoğlu and Murat Kurum race, and what do IYI Party and DEM voters say?

MAK Research President Mehmet Ali Kulat made assessments regarding the local elections to be held on March 31.

Speaking to Miray Tamer from Gerçek Gündem, Kulat answered the questions, "Who is ahead in the Ekrem İmamoğlu - Murat Kurum race, and what do IYI Party and DEM voters say?"

"THERE IS NO VOTE GOING FROM DEM TO MURAT KURUM"

Discussing the effects of the decision of DEM and the IYI Party to enter the election with their own candidates, Kulat spoke as follows:

"It appears that the DEM Party, which is likely to receive around 10 percent of the vote in Istanbul in general elections—let's say based on voter behavior—currently has two out of every three voters voting for Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu, and one voting for the DEM Party. There is no vote going from DEM to the AK Party or to Murat Kurum.

"BUĞRA KAVUNCU WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS HARM TO EKREM İMAMOĞLU"

Normally, the IYI Party also has a vote share in the 7-8 band in Istanbul in terms of general elections. Approximately two-thirds of these voters—let's say 'a little more than half' to be precise—are currently voting for Ekrem İmamoğlu and are not voting for Buğra Kavuncu. Let's say 'half' in a general sense, because the figure is close to that. All the votes that Buğra Kavuncu receives are votes that went to Ekrem İmamoğlu in the last election. This is also an important situation. If Buğra Kavuncu receives 5 percent or more of the vote, he would cause serious harm to Ekrem İmamoğlu.”

"THERE ARE THREE IMPORTANT STRUCTURES THAT COULD HAVE A SAY IN THE FATE OF THE ELECTION"

Evaluating the effects of the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) not cooperating with the AKP, Kulat said, "He thinks that all the votes that the New Welfare Party receives—or will receive—will come from Kurum. Stating that this situation will be one of the significant determinants of the equation, Kulat said, “The New Welfare Party is not receiving a very high percentage of votes in Istanbul so far.

It has an impact in some other provinces of Turkey, in the southeast. It has an impact in Şanlıurfa, Elazığ, and Malatya. In some places there, it is competing for the lead, and in others, it is the second or third party. But we do not see such an effect in Istanbul, at least at this level. If the New Welfare Party also receives, for example, five points or more, it could be very easy for Ekrem İmamoğlu to win the election, and I say this along with other determinants. In other words, there are three important structures that could have a say in the fate of the election,” he said.

"BOTH ISSUES HARM BOTH CANDIDATES"

The MAK Consulting President also touched upon the possible effects of the images shared on social media, which were alleged to have been filmed at the CHP Istanbul Provincial Headquarters, and the discussions regarding the assets of the AKP candidate in Ankara, Turgut Altınok:

"If there is no issue that changes the agenda until election day, both of these issues harm both candidates. This issue could also harm Ekrem İmamoğlu more than expected… When I say 'expected,' I mean we are already talking about a neck-and-neck election, so that is why I say this. One point is a big point in such a process. In Ankara, the declaration that Turgut Altınok is a wealthy person is also causing serious harm for now."

News Source: 12punto