Naci Görür lists the most high-risk districts in Istanbul for an earthquake: 'There will be more loss of life and property than the total of 11 provinces'

Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür made striking statements regarding the potential Marmara earthquake on the Medya Kritik program on TGRT Haber. 

Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür was a guest on the Medya Kritik program broadcast on TGRT Haber.

"THE MAYOR TO BE ELECTED MUST PREPARE THE CITY FOR AN EARTHQUAKE"

Issuing warnings regarding the potential Marmara earthquake, Görür stated that an earthquake between 7.2 and 7.6 in magnitude is expected in Istanbul, and expressed the following:

"The mayor to be elected in Istanbul on April 1 must prepare the city for an earthquake. The threat is in the Marmara. The first mayor elected must know where the threat is coming from. An earthquake will occur in the Sea of Marmara and on the North branch of the North Anatolian Fault. One of these is the islands branch, and the other is the Kumburgaz branch. There is a possibility that these two branches will break at the same time. They broke 3 months apart in 1766. If both break at once, there is a possibility it could reach 7.6. When people think of earthquakes, politicians think of 'building stock'. Increasing the building stock in Istanbul reduces the damage. 

"POLITICIANS HAVE PUT THE EARTHQUAKE ON THEIR AGENDA"

I have not taken part in any mayoral candidate's team or the mayor's team. What I want from everyone, including the ruling party and the opposition, is to remain above politics. If I wear a specific badge, the area I can influence is limited. If they need my knowledge, I am ready to provide all my information. They are calling me not only from Istanbul but from different cities as well. Efforts should be made to build resilient cities; window-dressing politics should not be practiced. In this period, mayoral candidates are taking the earthquake seriously. This is what pleases me the most in this election. They were not this concerned before. The work must be carried out with seriousness. 

"THE EARTHQUAKE IS THE MAIN SURVIVAL ISSUE"

A 7.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in Japan recently, and 120 people died by chance. We cannot have 20 thousand, 50 thousand deaths in every earthquake. This is a situation that the world finds strange, and it does not suit us. I do not understand what politicians call a 'survival issue'. The real survival issue is the earthquake. I want political will. If an earthquake happens, we will reach a point where we will be debating not just the country's economic independence, but its political independence as well. 

"WE ARE DEFINITELY EXPECTING AN EARTHQUAKE"

There is the North branch of the North Anatolian Fault, which enters from the Gulf and exits from Tekirdağ, with a length of 160 km. The earthquake is right here. Some earthquake experts-geoscientists are debating the fault. If you are so curious, do the scientific research, brother. They are appearing before the public and talking about the fault. Earthquakes of a certain magnitude have occurred in the Marmara, and they will occur again. The 1999 earthquake occurred, and the 1912 Şarköy earthquake also occurred. There has been no earthquake between Gölcük and Şarköy since 1766. We call this a 'seismic gap'. I do not understand why these friends are making these statements when it is so clear. We are definitely expecting an earthquake.  

"PROBABILITY OF AN EARTHQUAKE OVER 7 IS 47 PERCENT"

An earthquake is expected within 6 years, plus or minus 10 years. We are currently playing in extra time. The probability of an earthquake of 7 or higher in the Marmara is 47 percent. We should be talking about what we need to do before and after the earthquake. The matter is not limited to 'drop-cover-hold on'. Citizens and the state must join hands and overcome this. 

"THERE WILL BE MORE LOSS IN ISTANBUL THAN THE TOTAL OF 11 PROVINCES"

The most important component of being prepared for an earthquake is the public. In Istanbul, there will be more loss of life and property than the total of 11 provinces. There could be more than 50 thousand deaths in an Istanbul earthquake. Those with advanced technological societies view those who suffer high death tolls in these earthquakes as underdeveloped. These faults produce earthquakes and will continue to produce them for millions of years. 

Celal Şengör is a scientist whose way of thinking is between genius and brilliance. Celal would not leave the country like that. If he were going to leave, he would have gone by now. When he says 'I will leave Istanbul', he is already talking about Çanakkale. If the population in Istanbul increases, it will return as more loss of life in an earthquake. If you are going to build 600 thousand buildings in Istanbul, you will also demolish 600 thousand buildings. You should not build buildings in Istanbul; you should reduce the population in Istanbul. We are also fighting against disasters to a certain extent. A citizen may not be able to think 30 years ahead, but the state must. 

WHICH DISTRICTS IN ISTANBUL ARE IN DANGER?

The area on the European Side, up to 10 kilometers inland from the coast and up to Silivri, will be the places that suffer the most loss in an earthquake. On the Anatolian Side, it will start from the coast and landfill areas will be affected. When the 1999 earthquake happened, we went to some regions and begged the mayors 'do not grant zoning and settlement permits'. Tuzla and its surroundings, Kartal, and the areas of Maltepe close to the sea could be affected. Keep the map in front of your eyes, draw a line parallel to the second Bosphorus bridge to the right and left. The areas south of this curve will be affected more by the earthquake. Those located to the north will be relatively less affected. There will be an earthquake between 7.2 and 7.6, and they will be affected by it. We have been shouting since 1999, no one took us seriously. Only recently have politicians started to listen to us."

News Source: 12punto