Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy speaks on the Marmara earthquake: The high-risk section has already ruptured

A magnitude 5.0 tremor occurred in Malatya, with its epicenter in Battalgazi. Earthquake scientist Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy made statements during a live broadcast on CNN TÜRK.

Here are the highlights from Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy's statements:

(Is this an aftershock of February 6 or a different fault?) The situation is more complex. When the 2020 Sivrice earthquake occurred, the fault line that ruptured was moving westward from Sivrice Lake toward Doğanyol and then toward Pütürge, where the rupture stopped. Since the stress was not released there, I said on a TV program that night that there could be a 6.0-6.5 magnitude earthquake to release the stress, or many 5.0 magnitude earthquakes. At that time, many 5.0 magnitude earthquakes were occurring north of Pütürge. I even pointed this out in an article I wrote about it.

'THIS STRUCTURE WILL NOT TRANSFORM INTO A LARGE EARTHQUAKE'

Why didn't the fault here rupture? The reason is this: for it to rupture, the Pütürge block in the south needs to move eastward. The Sincik fault, as a reverse fault, compresses this fault. When it compresses, the two forces cancel each other out. And since there is no movement there, this fault moves westward. When there are many small ruptures, the fractures are constantly refreshed. There are many such ruptures here. This structure will not transform into a large earthquake. But there will be many earthquakes between 5.0 and 6.0. I have already explained these.

A CONTRARIAN PREDICTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL MARMARA EARTHQUAKE

There is a real relationship between information and knowledge here. We have been providing information since August 17, but because the data we explain does not enter people's minds and turn into their own knowledge, and because there is no synthesis, they tend toward fear based on baseless talk.

For a 7.0 magnitude earthquake to occur in a region, a 10 km deep area of one thousand square kilometers along a fault line of 70-80 km or even longer must be loaded with stress. Let's put it this way; at least in the Marmara, we know from the charts that there is an 80 km table, and because this table is thick, it is full of current. If it is full of current, an earthquake could occur there; the current would discharge. But we look at the Marmara, and after 1999, everyone was saying the Marmara would rupture from end to end. Talking about 8.0 magnitude earthquakes, 7.8 magnitude earthquakes...

They were constantly making wild guesses. It's like not knowing how to count. But in reality, when we looked under the Marmara Sea; in 1894, the 60 km eastern section of the 170 km Marmara fault—that is, the section going from Gölcük to Çınarcık and further west—had ruptured. In other words, the current was discharged in 1894. Energy accumulates and accumulates, and then this earthquake can repeat. As for the other, the fault ruptured in front of Marmara Island in 1912, and after discharging all its energy, the battery there is now constantly leaking energy; it cannot accumulate it. The fault is sliding past on both sides. And many earthquakes occur there. Small earthquakes. When friends see those earthquakes, they say, 'Oh no, the big Marmara earthquake is coming...' It is an event that drains the battery instead of charging it on a fault that has already discharged its energy.

IT RUPTURED ON APRIL 23

The North Anatolian Fault does not go toward the Princes' Islands. It goes along the Yalova-Çınarcık line. The fault is not in one piece; it is in two pieces. This causes 6.0 magnitude earthquakes. There is a fault between Silivri and Kumburgaz. That fault can cause a 6.0-6.5 magnitude earthquake. But there is no fault in the section from Büyükçekmece to Yeşilköy. A 6.3 magnitude earthquake occurred on April 23. The high-risk part of the two pieces has ruptured. There are bridge faults, and the earthquakes that will occur there—this is something I said back on April 23—there could be earthquakes below 6.0 in the Silivri trough. It is a place where 5.0 magnitude earthquakes will occur. When friends see that, they say, 'Oh no, a big earthquake will happen.' But they take a map and talk based on that map from end to end. These things panic people excessively, and none of them apologize.

News Source: 12punto