Şener Üşümezsoy explains: 'A 25 km fault will break!' Here is the region where he expects an earthquake in Istanbul

Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy, who previously predicted the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred on April 23, 2025, shared his assessments regarding the potential major earthquake expected in Istanbul.

Speaking to Sözcü TV, Üşümezsoy argued that the scientific basis for the long-standing expectation of a major earthquake in the city is weak. He claimed that some fault segments in the Sea of Marmara do not have enough energy accumulation to produce a destructive earthquake.

THE ADALAR SEGMENT DEBATE

Drawing particular attention to the Adalar segment, Üşümezsoy argued that this line does not have the capacity to generate a large-scale earthquake. Stating that the concern that has persisted in the public eye for years does not reflect the reality for this region, Üşümezsoy said, "The earthquake risk in Istanbul has ended. The Adalar line is a dead fault, and this fact must be accepted by everyone." Üşümezsoy claimed that there is not enough stress accumulation in the region in question for an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater.

SILIVRI–KUMBURGAZ LINE IDENTIFIED

Pointing to a single region for a possible earthquake that could affect Istanbul, Üşümezsoy said that the approximately 25-kilometer line between Silivri and Kumburgaz should be monitored.

Stating that this segment has posed a risk since 2009, Üşümezsoy expressed that an earthquake that could occur here could be in the range of 6.0 to 6.5 in magnitude.

OBJECTION TO THE “BIG ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE” CLAIM

Arguing that a destructive scenario defined as the “big Istanbul earthquake” across the North Marmara region is no longer valid, Üşümezsoy also directed criticisms at earthquake management policies.

Claiming that municipalities have been securing funding from international organizations since 1999 based on the narrative that a “big earthquake will happen,” Üşümezsoy alleged that these resources have not been used effectively within the scope of disaster preparedness.

Emphasizing that the production of earthquake-resistant structures is the responsibility of the construction sector, Üşümezsoy stated that the correct analysis of fault lines is a scientific duty. He added that policies based on incorrect fault models would not yield healthy results.

News Source: 12punto