The major risk awaiting Turkey if the crisis in Iran continues! 'It would overshadow the Syrian experience'

Protests that began in Iran on December 28 against the rising cost of living quickly turned into mass anti-government demonstrations. It has been reported that 646 people have lost their lives so far in the events continuing across the country.

While the developments are not limited to Iran, they have resonated on a regional and global scale. The potential consequences for Turkey have begun to be discussed through the lenses of security and migration.

In this context, Sözcü columnist Saygı Öztürk included in his column today the assessments of Retired Major General Rafet Kılıç regarding the situation in Iran and his striking warnings for Turkey.

"THE FIRST IMPACT WOULD BE THE REFUGEE ISSUE"

Kılıç emphasized that if the unrest in Iran drags on, Turkey could face a new wave of migration. Pointing to Iran's population size and economic fragility, Kılıç stated that such a scenario could further exacerbate existing burdens.

At this point, Kılıç made the following assessment regarding the potential situation:

"If the unrest continues, the first blow to us will come from the refugee issue. A mass migration from an Iran with a population approaching 90 million and an economy on the verge of collapse could even overshadow the Syrian experience. Given Turkey's current demographic, economic, and social burden, the damage such a wave would create on the country can never be underestimated."

DREW ATTENTION TO THE TURKISH POPULATION IN IRAN

Rafet Kılıç stated that the risk is not limited to migration and drew attention to the ethnic Turkish population living in Iran. Reminding that approximately 30 million people of Turkish descent live within Iran's borders, Kılıç said that if the central authority weakens, ethnic and sectarian fault lines could be activated.

Emphasizing that this process could become even more complex with the intervention of external actors, Kılıç recalled previous examples in the Middle East:

"However, the danger does not end there. Approximately 30 million people of Turkish descent live in Iran. To think that ethnic and sectarian fault lines will not be agitated if the central authority weakens, external actors intervene, and proxy structures are deployed is to not know the Middle East at all. With what happened in Iraq and Syria still fresh in our memories, it is not rational to assume that the same scenario will not be staged in Iran."

News Source: 12punto