Tensions rise in the region, Israel attacks Iran! 'The issue is the West's insatiable...'

Duygu Kömürcü - 12punto.com.tr

Israel has been continuing its attacks on Iran since the night hours. In the region where tensions have escalated, it has been reported to the public that many high-level state officials have been killed on the Iranian side. The developments, which the whole world is following closely, also concern Turkey directly. Experienced journalist and author Bahadır Selim Dilek, who has traveled to many war zones in the Middle East such as Syria, Lebanon, and Pakistan for many years to follow developments closely, evaluated the situation for 12punto.

Emphasizing that the developments concern Turkey as closely as they do Iran and Israel, Dilek stated, "The government needs to conduct a knife-edge diplomacy in this situation, so to speak. Whether there are cadres to do that is also doubtful. Because the old diplomacy no longer exists in Turkey."

"It is clear that Israel is unfortunately more prepared for this. It seems difficult to make Israel take a step back with daily reflexes and strategies," said Dilek, who continued as follows:

'IT CONCERNS THE ENTIRE REGION'

To what extent has Iran been affected by this process? Could we face a scenario like the disintegration of the Iranian state at the end of the process?

"A very critical development has truly taken place. We need to dwell on this because this situation concerns not only Iran but the entire region. These attacks concern not only Iran but the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in fact, Turkey. Therefore, we need to dwell on this issue carefully. The developments that will occur following Israel's attacks will also affect the fault lines located in the region."

What could the process bring from now on?

"The relations between the US and Israel and the attitudes of a significant portion of other Western countries clearly show us that a regime change in Iran is desired and expected. While it was expected that Iran would be integrated into the world economy and become open to exploitation by adapting to the neoliberal order, the Iranian Government has resisted this situation until today, both with its ancient statehood and the religious dynamics created within the Islamic Republic of Iran. But now, the world is going through a very critical process. The answer to the question of where and how this critical process will end is not clear. We all have question marks in our minds about this.

Unfortunately, with this identity politics, the ethnic, religious, and sectarian structures of countries are being provoked, and countries are being forced to take a new shape through this identity politics."

'THE ISSUE IS THE WEST'S INSATIABLE...'

"Iran is a society where the Iranian-Persian belief and the Shia belief have a multiplier effect. When this is the case, from the perspective of the West, this situation must be broken. After this is broken, the Mullah Regime prevailing in Iran must also be destroyed. According to the West's thinking, it is expected that the Iranian people will transition to a regime that is more compatible and similar to the West. In my opinion, the West's expectation is that Iran will be reshaped ethnically, sect-wise, and religiously, and that tensions will continue until the current Shia regime is eliminated by using the Azeris and Kurds living in Iran as a stick, an instrument, so to speak, even if it does not directly eliminate the Shia influence prevailing in the region.

The issue is not Iran's nuclear capacity; I think the issue is entirely the effort of the West's insatiable neoliberal mentality to reshape the Middle East and the region."

WILL REGIME CHANGE COME?

Regime change may come, but it will not come very easily. Iran is a country that reacts when it receives an external influence. Therefore, this regime will not be destroyed easily. But ultimately, this is the West's goal: to lead to a regime change by creating ethnic and identity-based turmoil in Iran."

We know that Iran's air force is not very strong. This seems like a big problem...

"Iran does not have an air force because not much investment was made in it. The reason for this is that the arms industry is mostly in the hands of the US. Instead, Iran invested more in unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles. But we saw that these investments were not very sufficient. Iran could not strongly resist Israel's attacks. Just think, they are killing a country's Chief of General Staff! It is impossible for Israel to carry out these pinpoint operations without receiving help from the inside. This means there is a segment inside that helps Israel. This is not just one person; it could be a community, an organization formed in advance. The places hit must have been marked from within Iran for them to be able to carry out operations so easily. Therefore, these are all critical points that should be noted and not forgotten.

Not having a strong air force is a huge disadvantage for Iran. Unfortunately, Israel moved and went as comfortably as if it were walking on a road without dogs, and struck. They killed their chiefs of general staff and high-level military officials. No matter what Iran does from now on, no matter how it reacts, it will not eliminate this blow it has received. Iran will have to face the consequences of the blow it has received.

Even if this situation is not finalized from today to tomorrow, when it is spread over a long period, all countries in the region will be affected by it. On the other hand, the disintegration of Iran would be a nightmare scenario for Turkey. Because Turkey and Iran were the two giant countries of the region in the past. Now, Turkey's situation is clear; we are going through a very troubled period in foreign policy. I am not even mentioning domestic policy. There is no justice left, no fairness left, nor is there any law! There is nothing left. We are also in great trouble in foreign policy. There are millions of immigrants and refugees. The state of the country's economy is already clear. We boast that our defense industry is good, but we are still using old planes. We do not have access to state-of-the-art planes; we couldn't even buy them."

'WE HAVE BEEN LIVING THE THIRD WORLD WAR SINCE 2001'

Iran's Mullah Islamic regime has rotted the country from within. The social structure of the country's people is not as solid as it used to be. Previously, when an external reaction came, the Iranian people could gather and be together no matter what, but now we cannot observe this reflex in the public. Therefore, the vacuum that will emerge with a blow to these two countries could cause very serious turmoil and chaos in the region. The shock that Iran will experience after this blow could also bring chaos with it. This is not a situation that will be concluded in three or five days; it will be spread over a long process.

Some commentators are talking about this situation as the Third World War. If you ask me, we have already been living the Third World War with positional warfare since 2001. This business started in Afghanistan and continued in Iraq. Following the Lebanese Civil War, the Yemen Problem, the Arab Spring, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Pakistan-India war, we have actually been living the Third World War in a postmodern way for a quarter of a century. There is conflict everywhere, there is trouble everywhere. Blood is flowing everywhere. The Iran issue also seems to occupy us all in the coming periods. As I said, this process is not a process that will be finalized in three or five days, but this situation will also bring serious troubles with it.

If you ask whether Iran's retaliation against Israel will yield a result, I don't think it will yield much of a result. It is clear that Israel is unfortunately more prepared for this. It seems difficult to make Israel take a step back with daily reflexes and strategies."

Could Israel's direct targeting of nuclear power plants and military bases in Iran be the starting point of the Third World War?

"As I said, even if we don't notice it much while we are in it, we have actually been living the Third World War de facto since 2001. Everywhere around us is full of conflict. While the Russia-Ukraine issue, Pakistan's war with India, and Israel's operation in Gaza are ongoing, it hitting Iran on the other hand, the Syria issue which seems to have ended but continues, and a terrorist statelet is in the stage of being established right to our south, Iraq is mixed within itself, and the Karabakh issue, there is actually a war everywhere. If you ask me, there will not be an explosion point like the First or Second World War. We will live, and are already living, the Third World War as a period conducted with proxy and surrogate wars, suitable for today's conditions. Would hitting nuclear power plants in Iran increase this further and pour gasoline on the fire? Of course, it would increase it.

The real issue here is how Iran will react to this and how strong its retaliation will be. So far, they haven't done anything that would yield results. Will they do it, or do they have the capacity to do it? One needs to think about that."

'IF GASOLINE IS POURED ON THE FIRE...'

Unfortunately, the Mullah regime in Iran has weakened that beautiful and ancient state a lot. Despite Iran's monetary and cultural wealth, the country is not at the power it deserves. It has become a country rotted by religion with the Mullah regime. Would the people want to meet real democracy? It is hard to predict that too. As a result, if gasoline is poured on the fire, it seems to me that the hitting of nuclear power plants could be that starting point."

Well, you said that all these developments concern the entire region, including Turkey, closely. What should Turkey's attitude be in the process?

"Turkey must stay away from these things, that's for sure. This situation is like a double-edged sword for the AKP in power. Because on one hand, while they are wagging their fingers at Israel and showing reaction, on the other hand, they continue to carry out trade with Israel. They seem to be backing Iran, but it cannot be said that they are very much at peace with Iran. Therefore, one should not jump headlong into this business. With the AKP coming to power in 2002, foreign policy unfortunately became material for domestic policy. Will the AKP government extract a heroic story from this to consolidate its own base? I'm not sure, they might. But Turkey must definitely stay away from this issue and not get involved. Neither Turkey, nor the public, nor the economy has the tolerance for a refugee influx that will come from there. Therefore, the government needs to suggest moderation to the parties, in foreign ministry terms. Whether this moderation will have a response, I have doubts about that too, because the government's relationship with Israel is very bad in public, and they are not talking politically anyway. There is no logic in suggesting moderation to Iran; they already hit the guys.

The government needs to conduct a knife-edge diplomacy in this situation, so to speak. Whether there are cadres to do that is also doubtful. Because the old diplomacy no longer exists in Turkey. Those glorious ambassadors and diplomats have retired. Therefore, even if they look from Ankara and pontificate and wag their fingers and say "Damn Israel!", the government's skirts were ringing with joy because Trump won the US elections. There is an incredible contradiction in the government that both says damn Israel and screams with joy for Trump. As Ahmet Kaya said: "What a harsh contradiction is this, mother?" Unfortunately, politics in Turkey works like this."

News Source : Duygu Kömürcü