Warning from Cem Gürdeniz: 'Turkey must not deviate from the Montreux line': A dangerous threshold is being crossed in the Black Sea

In a comprehensive assessment shared on his social media account, Gürdeniz interpreted the intense attacks launched by Russia on Lviv, one of the strategic centers of Western Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in the U.S. for talks, and the fall of an unidentified object in the Lublin region near the Polish border, as signs that the war has entered a new phase.

According to Cem Gürdeniz, these developments indicate that not only is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalating, but the possibility of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is also steadily increasing. He warned that new incidents that could occur along the Poland and Romania line might expand the geographical boundaries of the war.

"Ukraine's Naval Power is Weakening in the Black Sea"

Touching upon the military and economic situation in the Black Sea, Gürdeniz claimed that the Port of Odesa is effectively out of commission and that Ukraine's maritime trade is being maintained with limited capacity, largely through the ports of Chornomorsk and Izmail.

Arguing that this situation has significantly reduced Ukraine's export capability, Gürdeniz stated that grain and energy transport have now become direct targets of the war, adding that the Black Sea is no longer a safe trade route.

View That Sanctions Will Deepen the Crisis

In his post, Gürdeniz also addressed the bill brought to the agenda of the U.S. Senate that envisions new sanctions against Russia, arguing that these steps would create new uncertainties that could affect not only the Russian economy but also global energy supply security and price stability.

Asserting that past sanctions have led Moscow toward harsher military and geopolitical moves rather than forcing it to take a step back, Gürdeniz expressed that similar policies could further escalate the current crisis.

"Risk of False Flag Operations is Increasing"

The retired Rear Admiral also drew attention to the possibility of provocations and "false flag" operations that could lead to NATO being directly drawn into the war. Stating that potential developments along the Poland and Romania axis could cause an escalation that is difficult to control, Gürdeniz noted that the rising tension between Iran and the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz during the same period is creating additional pressure on the global energy system.

Call to Turkey for Montreux and 'Active Neutrality'

Sharing his views on the strategy Turkey should follow at the end of his assessment, Gürdeniz argued that Ankara must maintain the balance in the Black Sea as the implementer of the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.

Gürdeniz stated that Turkey's continuation of its policy of active neutrality is of critical importance for national security, and argued that the scope of support provided to Ukraine should be re-evaluated within the framework of Turkey's national interests and the strategic balance in the Black Sea. He also expressed that it is important for Turkey to avoid practices that could create the impression of increasing the military capacity of one of the parties to the war and to conduct defense industry collaborations in line with this sensitivity.

Here is that statement Gürdeniz made on his social media account:

Zelensky, Beyaz Saray’dayken Rusya’nın Batı Ukrayna’nın stratejik merkezi Lviv’e düzenlediği yoğun saldırılar ve aynı saatlerde Polonya sınırındaki Lublin bölgesine kimliği henüz belirlenemeyen bir cismin (muhtemelen bir seyir füzesi veya füze parçası) düşmesi, savaşın artık yeni…

— Cem GÜRDENİZ (@cemgurdeniznet) July 30, 2026

News Source: 12punto