All eyes on the January 22 MPC meeting: Economists' interest rate cut forecast for the Central Bank

The vast majority of market experts anticipate a 150-basis-point easing in interest rates at the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on January 22.

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All eyes on the January 22 MPC meeting: Economists' interest rate cut forecast for the Central Bank

Ahead of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, economists participating in the İdeal Data Haber survey have announced their expectations regarding the new interest rate decision. Almost all market experts expect a 1.5-point cut in the policy rate. In this scenario, it is estimated that the policy rate, currently at 38.00 percent, will be lowered to 36.50 percent.

18 ECONOMISTS EXPECT A 150-BASIS-POINT CUT

In the survey, which consulted the views of 22 economists, 18 participants predicted that the benchmark interest rate would be lowered by 150 basis points. While only two economists expressed the view that there would be a more limited cut of 100 basis points, one participant stated that they expect the CBRT to make a stronger move with a 200-basis-point cut. On the other hand, one economist predicted that the current interest rate would be maintained.

According to the survey results, changes are also expected in the interest rate corridor. Among the prominent expectations is that the CBRT will lower the borrowing rate, which is 36.50 percent, to 35.00 percent, and the lending rate, which is at 41.00 percent, to 39.50 percent.

EXPERTS' YEAR-END 2026 FORECASTS

Economists participating in the interest rate survey also shared their projections for the end of 2026. According to the estimates provided by 16 experts, the median rate projected for the policy rate at the end of the year was determined to be 28.50 percent. These forecasts varied between 27.50 percent and 30.00 percent.

As will be recalled, the Central Bank last lowered the one-week repo rate from 39.5 percent to 38.0 percent at its MPC meeting on December 11, 2025. At the same meeting, the overnight lending rate was reduced from 42.5 percent to 41.0 percent, and the overnight borrowing rate was lowered from 38.0 percent to 36.5 percent.

The Central Bank's first MPC meeting of the new year will be held on Thursday, January 22.

News Source: 12punto