Banks Association announces year-end Dollar/TL forecast: Notable interest rate commentary

Alpaslan Çakar, Chairman of the Banks Association of Turkey and General Manager of Ziraat Bank, made assessments regarding the macroeconomic and banking agenda.

DOLLAR FORECAST AT 39-40 TL

Stating that there is an inflation expectation in the 40 to 45 percent band for this year, Çakar also conveyed that there is a possibility of reaching the 15 percent expectation for 2025. Çakar said that their Dollar/TL expectation is in the 39-40 lira range. Expressing that he finds the theme of real appreciation in the TL reasonable, Çakar said, "Turkey has an extraordinary opportunity ahead of it after the elections. We must not miss the chance to spend these 4.5 years without elections as a period of restoration, reform, and the completion of structural reforms."

"INTEREST RATE HIKE CYCLE MAY END IN JANUARY"

Çakar also made assessments regarding the monetary policy path.

Çakar stated that he estimates the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will complete its interest rate hike cycle in January, in line with market expectations.

Çakar said, "I think like everyone else. I do not think it will affect market interest rates much. In the deposit market, TL interest rates are in the 45-50 percent band. Loan interest rates are also fluctuating in a band between 45-55 percent. Dollar loans are in the 9 percent band, and euro loans are in the 7.5-8 percent band. I do not believe that interest rates will increase further by the end of the year. I am of the opinion that the Central Bank will also complete this process as of January."

News Source: 12punto