Cautious start to the week in markets: US employment data awaited

Global markets have made a cautious start to the week, with investors focusing on a busy macroeconomic data calendar, led by the US employment report.

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Cautious start to the week in markets: US employment data awaited

Global markets have made a cautious start to the week, with investors focusing on a busy macroeconomic data calendar, led by the US employment report. While questions regarding whether the global fight against inflation will result in a recession and conflicts in the Middle East are increasing concerns, recently released macroeconomic data is helping to limit fears in the markets.

Analysts state that the employment data to be released this week could be decisive for the future steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Comments to be made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell today will also attract the attention of investors.

According to data released on Friday, personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.2 percent monthly in August, remaining below expectations. Additionally, the core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 2.7 percent increase on an annual basis. Inflation indicators coming in below expectations have increased hopes that the Fed could take further steps toward lowering interest rates.

The consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan in the US was revised to 70.1 in September, reaching its highest level in the last 5 months. Statements from Fed officials also continue to remain in the focus of the markets. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that interest rates should be lowered "gradually."

In money market pricing, while the expectation that the Fed will make a 75 basis point cut by the end of the year remains strong, it is projected that there is a 54 percent probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in November.

The US 10-year bond yield is currently at 3.76 percent, while the dollar index is trading at 100.4. The ounce price of gold has retreated to 2,655 dollars. The barrel price of Brent crude oil has started the week with an increase and is currently hovering at 72.3 dollars, up 0.5 percent.

On Friday, the Dow Jones index achieved its all-time high close with a 0.33 percent increase, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.13 percent and 0.39 percent, respectively. Index futures in the US started the new week with a positive trend.

In European stock markets, a buying-weighted trend prevails, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced in Germany today is being closely watched. Consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone have fallen to their lowest level since September 2021.

In Asian markets, a mixed outlook prevails. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September announced in China was 49.8, above expectations, but the services sector PMI managed to remain at the 50.0 level. In Japan, selling pressure is observed in the markets following the election of the new prime minister.

In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index completed the day at 9,777.46 points, a decrease of 0.53 percent compared to the previous close. The Dollar/TL is trading at 34.1750 at the opening of the interbank market.

Today, the Services Producer Price Index (S-PPI) and monthly money and banking statistics will be monitored domestically, while growth in the UK, inflation in Germany, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index in the US will be followed abroad. Analysts note that 9,700 and 9,600 points are support levels for the BIST 100 index, while 10,050 and 10,200 levels are resistance positions.

DATA TO BE FOLLOWED