CBRT releases market participants survey: What will the dollar be at year-end?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for April 2024.

According to the survey, which was compiled from the responses of 68 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors, the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 44.16 percent in this survey period, compared to 44.19 percent in the previous survey period. The 12-month ahead CPI expectation was 35.17 percent in this survey period, compared to 36.70 percent in the previous survey period. The 24-month ahead CPI expectation was 22.05 percent in this survey period, compared to 22.67 percent in the previous survey period.

12-MONTH AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATION

In the April 2024 survey period, when evaluating the participants' probability estimates for 12 months ahead, it was projected that CPI would increase within the 30.00 - 33.99 percent range with an average probability of 36.36 percent, within the 34.00 - 37.99 percent range with a probability of 38.96 percent, and within the 38.00 - 41.99 percent range with a probability of 13.30 percent.

According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, it was observed that 32.81 percent of the participants' expectations were in the 30.00 - 33.99 percent range, 34.38 percent were in the 34.00 - 37.99 percent range, and 20.31 percent were in the 38.00 - 41.99 percent range.

24-MONTH AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATION

In the April 2024 survey period, when evaluating the participants' probability estimates for 24 months ahead, it was projected that CPI would increase within the 16.00 - 20.99 percent range with an average probability of 28.70 percent, within the 21.00 - 25.99 percent range with a probability of 52.52 percent, and within the 26.00 - 30.99 percent range with a probability of 9.08 percent.
According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, when evaluating the 24-month ahead CPI inflation expectations, it was observed that 33.93 percent of the participants' expectations were in the 16.00 - 20.99 percent range, 42.86 percent were in the 21.00 - 25.99 percent range, and 12.50 percent were in the 26.00 - 30.99 percent range.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION

The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market at the end of the current month was 51.43 percent in this survey period, compared to 45.82 percent in the previous survey period. The expectation for the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate at the end of the current month was 50.00 percent in this survey period, compared to 45.00 percent in the previous survey period.

EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATION

The participants' year-end exchange rate (US Dollar/TL) expectation was 40.01 TL in this survey period, compared to 40.53 TL in the previous survey period. The 12-month ahead exchange rate expectation was 42.47 TL in this survey period, compared to 42.79 TL in the previous survey period.

GDP GROWTH EXPECTATION

The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.3 percent in both the previous survey period and this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2025 was 3.7 percent in this survey period, compared to 3.8 percent in the previous survey period.

News Source: İHA