Critical calculation for retiree raises: Three different scenarios for the lowest monthly pension in January

With July-September inflation data, the first portion of the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees has reached 5.57 percent; year-end forecasts highlight three possibilities.

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Critical calculation for retiree raises: Three different scenarios for the lowest monthly pension in January

Calculations for the raise that millions of retirees will receive in January have begun to take shape with inflation data for the second half of the year. Following the July, August, and September data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the raise rate already formed for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees has been calculated at 5.57 percent.

According to TÜİK data, consumer prices increased by 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August, and 1.84 percent in September. With the September data, annual inflation rose to 29.73 percent. The announcement of October, November, and December inflation figures will be awaited for the January raise to be finalized.

Money image symbolizing pension and raise calculations on Turkish Lira banknotes. — The January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be determined based on the 6-month inflation for the July-December period.

THREE POSSIBILITIES ON THE TABLE

In the Central Bank's October Survey of Market Participants, the year-end 2026 inflation expectation rose from 29.61 percent to 29.63 percent. The year-end inflation forecast in the Medium-Term Program is 28.4 percent, while it is 28 percent in the Inflation Report announced by the Central Bank on August 13.

According to these forecasts, the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees changes in three different scenarios. If year-end inflation remains at 28 percent, the raise rate will be 8.70 percent, and the lowest pension will rise to 25 thousand 601 liras. If the 28.4 percent forecast in the Medium-Term Program is realized, the raise will reach 9.04 percent, and the lowest monthly pension will rise to 25 thousand 681 liras. In the case of 29.63 percent inflation, which is the market expectation, the raise rate will be 10.08 percent, and the lowest monthly pension will be approximately 25 thousand 926 liras.

Three prominent inflation scenarios for the January raise.
Year-end inflation scenario	SSK and Bağ-Kur raise	Lowest pension
28 percent	8.70 percent	25 thousand 601 liras
28.4 percent	9.04 percent	25 thousand 681 liras
29.63 percent	10.08 percent	Approximately 25 thousand 926 liras

In July, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees were given a raise of 17.76 percent, which was the inflation rate for the first 6 months of the year, and the lowest pension was increased to 23 thousand 552 liras. Civil servant retirees, on the other hand, received a total raise of 13.52 percent in the same period, including the inflation difference.

Hands of an elderly person counting Turkish Lira banknotes in a home setting. — The raise rate for civil servant retirees is calculated between 6.67 percent and 8.01 percent depending on year-end inflation.

According to the calculations, the January raise for civil servant retirees will be 6.67 percent if year-end inflation is 28 percent, and 8.01 percent if the market expectation is realized. In this range, the lowest civil servant pension is expected to be between 33 thousand 631 liras and 34 thousand 53 liras.

News Source: 12punto