Dollar/TL forecast from US banking giant Morgan Stanley: How much will it be in 2025?

Morgan Stanley, one of the leading banks in the US, has published a report on the Turkish economy.

Stating that it expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance for longer, Morgan Stanley noted that increased support for disinflation from fiscal and income policies is their base scenario.

According to a report by Bloomberg HT, Morgan Stanley analysts and economists, including Nida Iqbal and Hande Küçük, stated in their note: “The authorities' commitment to disinflation supports our forecast that interest rates will remain unchanged until the first quarter of 2025.”

DOLLAR/TL TO RISE TO 39 BY MID-2025

While the report stated that the optimistic view on the Turkish Lira is maintained, it was estimated that the Dollar/TL rate would rise to 39 by mid-2025.

In the report, which also evaluated Turkish banks, a positive outlook was expressed for banks in 2025, citing lower inflation, improving margins, higher return on equity, and lower cost of equity.

TARGET PRICES SET FOR TURKISH BANK STOCKS

The analysts set an “overweight” recommendation for Akbank with a target price of 96 TL, an “overweight” recommendation for Garanti with a target price of 160 TL, and an “equal weight” recommendation for İş Bankası with a target price of 23.70 TL.

The institution issued a sell recommendation for Turkey's 5-year CDS with a target of 217 basis points.

News Source: 12punto