Eyes on September for economic data: When will critical data be released?

As a busy economic data agenda awaits Turkey starting next week, all eyes in September will be on growth, export, and inflation figures, as well as the Medium-Term Program (OVP), which is in the final stages of being updated. In September, markets will focus on the intensive data calendar to be released and the OVP.

On Monday, September 2, the markets will focus on the growth data for the second quarter of the year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the April-June period of this year will be announced by TURKSTAT at 10:00. The Turkish economy grew by 4.5 percent last year and 5.7 percent in the first quarter of this year.

Economists participating in the AA Finance expectation survey estimate that GDP increased by 3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year.

Provisional foreign trade data for August is also expected to be released on Monday, September 2, by the Ministry of Trade and the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM).

FOREIGN TRADE DATA

Foreign trade data is expected to be announced in Istanbul by Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and TIM President Mustafa Gültepe.

Exports increased by 13.8 percent in July compared to the same month last year, reaching 22 billion 512 million dollars, marking the highest July export figure ever recorded.

TURKSTAT will announce August inflation data on Tuesday, September 3, at 10:00. In July, the consumer price index was announced as 61.78 percent annually and 3.23 percent monthly, while the domestic producer price index was 41.37 percent annually and 1.94 percent monthly.

According to the average of the August inflation expectations of economists participating in the AA Finance expectation survey, annual inflation, which was 61.78 percent the previous month, is projected to fall to 52.20 percent.

407 MILLION DOLLAR SURPLUS

Economic management had stated that the disinflation process had begun following the June and July inflation data.

Labor statistics for July will also be released on Tuesday, September 10. The unemployment rate rose by 0.7 points in June compared to the previous month, reaching 9.2 percent.

The industrial production index and foreign trade indices for July, which will be announced on the same day, will also be closely monitored. Industrial production decreased by 4.7 percent annually and 2.1 percent monthly in June.

The Central Bank's balance of payments statistics for July will be released on Thursday, September 12. The current account, following the data released in September 2023, most recently posted a surplus of 407 million dollars in June 2024.

Central government budget realizations for August will be announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on Monday, September 16. On the same day, the service production index and paid employee statistics for July, as well as the agricultural product producer price index for August, will be released.

HOUSING SALES STATISTICS

TURKSTAT will announce housing sales statistics for August on Tuesday, September 17. In Turkey, 127 thousand 88 houses were sold in July.

All eyes will also be on the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to be held on September 19. At its meeting on August 20, the Committee kept the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) constant at 50 percent.

In addition to macroeconomic indicators, the details of the OVP, which is expected to be announced in September and serves as the three-year roadmap for the Turkish economy, will be closely followed. With the OVP, basic macro indicators such as inflation, employment, growth, exports, and current account deficit for the 2025-2027 period will be determined.

OVP DATE: FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER

In a written statement made after the last meeting of the Economic Coordination Board chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, it was stated that work on the OVP, which has been in preparation for a long time, is continuing with a participatory approach and team spirit.

The OVP is expected to be published in the first week of September.

In addition to the work on the program, preparations for the 2025 budget will also be made. The budget proposal is planned to be submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) in October after the final touches are made.

News Source: 12punto