Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz stated that the increase in fuel prices will not be limited to pump prices alone, but will spread over a wide area through production costs, primarily in agriculture and the manufacturing industry.
Reminding that inflation was 22.1 percent in the first eight months of the year, Yılmaz said that despite the sliding scale (eşelmobil) system, price increases reached 82.4 percent for diesel and 61.6 percent for gasoline. He expressed that this situation requires public policies regarding energy prices to be prepared more sensitively, taking into account the effects on households and the real economy.
Stating that a series of regulations have been made in fuel since the beginning of the year, including the sliding scale system, the reduction of SCT support, and the transition to gradual tax increases on diesel and gasoline, Yılmaz recalled that a gradual increase approach for SCT on gasoline was also adopted with the Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette on October 1.
According to Yılmaz, the SCT per liter for 95-octane gasoline was set at 7.90 TL in October, 11.36 TL in November, and 14.8277 TL in December. For diesel, it was previously decided that the SCT would be increased to 3 TL in September, 6 TL in October, 9 TL in November, 12 TL in December, and 13.9006 TL in January 2027.
INFLATION IMPACT IS GROWING
Stating that the liter price of gasoline has exceeded 85 TL and the liter price of diesel has exceeded 98 TL, Yılmaz said that if there is no decline in international prices, the liter price of diesel could rise above 100 TL again within this month or with the SCT increase at the beginning of November. Yılmaz noted that prices in some eastern provinces are approaching the 100 TL threshold.
Stating that the rise in fuel prices has reached approximately three to four times the increase in the general price level, Yılmaz expressed that they calculated the direct contribution to September inflation to be approximately 0.35 points, the cumulative contribution for the August-September period to be 0.66 percent, and the nine-month cumulative contribution as of the end of September to be 1.58 points.
Yılmaz said that when the secondary effects that will arise through transportation, food, and production costs are also taken into account, the contribution of the rise in fuel prices to total inflation exceeds 7 points. He stated that if fuel prices do not fall in October, this effect could rise to 8.5 points.
Expressing that they expect year-end inflation to be around 32 percent if this scenario occurs, Yılmaz emphasized that the main risk is the reflection of fuel price hikes on the prices of other goods and services.
This also means that input costs will rise in these areas, primarily in agriculture and the manufacturing industry, and this will be reflected dramatically in the production costs of goods and services.
Yılmaz said that the increase in energy prices has raised the cost of living for low-income workers, retirees, and poor households. Stating that the problem is not just the increase in fuel prices, Yılmaz expressed that the vulnerability regarding living costs, production costs, and the general price level is also becoming widespread.
Calling for a solution, Yılmaz said that SCT rates should be reduced to zero, incentive policies to support the input costs of the agricultural sector and the real sector should be implemented, and social assistance for poor households affected by energy costs should be increased.
News Source: 12punto
