Countdown begins for February inflation: What do TÜİK and CBRT expectations say?

The countdown has begun for the February inflation data to be announced by TÜİK. On the other hand, according to the Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), assessments made by 69 economists show that the expectation for the February CPI increase, which was 2.65 percent last month, has risen to 3.23 percent in this period. So, when will TÜİK announce the February inflation data?

WHEN WILL THE FEBRUARY INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announces inflation data on the 3rd of every month. Accordingly, the February inflation figures will be announced on Monday, March 3, 2025, at 10:00 AM.

FEBRUARY INFLATION EXPECTATION CENTRAL BANK SURVEY

The CBRT published its February Market Participants Survey, sharing the views of 69 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors and professionals.

Accordingly, the expectation for the February CPI increase, which was 2.65 percent last month, rose to 3.23 percent in this period. The expectation for the CPI increase by the end of the current year rose from 27.05 percent to 28.30 percent. While the CPI increase expectation for 12 months ahead fell from 25.38 percent to 25.26 percent, it decreased from 17.72 percent to 17.26 percent for 24 months ahead.

12-MONTH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

In the February 2025 survey period, when evaluating participants' CPI increase forecasts for 12 months ahead, it is expected with the highest probability that the CPI will increase by 22.80 percent in the 21.00 – 23.99 percent range, and by 41.11 percent in the 24.00 – 26.99 percent range. Additionally, an increase is projected with a 21.46 percent probability in the 27.00 – 29.99 percent range.

In the same survey period, according to the assessment based on the point estimates of the participants, 14.52 percent of the expectations are in the 21.00 – 23.99 percent range, 48.39 percent are in the 24.00 – 26.99 percent range, and 19.35 percent are in the 27.00 – 29.99 percent range.