Deutsche Bank announces 2025 Dollar/TL forecast: The rise will not be as bright as in 2024

The '2025 adventure' of the dollar against the TL is being closely watched by investors.

Another voice has joined the view that the currency's trajectory in the new year will not be 'as bright as in 2024'.

Deutsche Bank Turkey Economist Yiğit Onay answered questions from Berfu Güven on the Global Outlook program on CNBC-e.

Stating that they expect the real appreciation trend of the Turkish Lira (TL) to continue in 2025, Onay said their year-end dollar/TL expectation is at the 43 level:

"We expect the real appreciation to be maintained. In terms of economic balances, we find it healthier for it to be more limited compared to last year. Our year-end dollar/TL expectation is at the 43 level. This is consistent with a limited appreciation trend. 2025 will not be as bright as 2024 for the TL.

However, despite this, we believe that the TL will maintain its appeal compared to both other emerging market currencies and foreign currency-denominated investment assets. This will support the local investors' view of the TL."

Onay continued as follows:

"The Central Bank is also trying to observe certain balances here. Even though there is a significant accumulation of reserves, the Central Bank is trying to alleviate the real appreciation pressure on the TL by allowing for nominal depreciation. We have seen these efforts come to the fore even more recently, along with a slight increase in the dollar/TL rate.

We expect the Turkish Lira to continue its real appreciation trend next year, albeit not as much as in 2024, and for this to occur without causing too much damage to economic balances. We assess that the positive outlook toward the TL continues for now."