Minimum wage earners were waiting with curiosity: Expert reveals his predictions... Here are the raise scenarios

As the process for the minimum wage that will be valid in 2026 has officially begun, the Ministry of Labor and Social Security has invited worker and employer representatives to the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which will meet on December 12.

However, it is not yet clear whether worker representatives will attend the meeting.

Millions of employees are focused on what the new wage will be.

“THE HIGHEST EXPECTATION IS 25 PERCENT”

Speaking to Hande Dağ from Mynet, SGK expert Özgür Erdursun stated that the process is proceeding differently than usual this year and made notable remarks in his assessment to Mynet. According to Erdursun:

The highest projected raise rate for 2026 is 25 percent.

A raise exceeding this rate could be considered a “surprise.”

The tight monetary policy maintained by the economic management reduces the likelihood of a high-rate increase.

According to Erdursun, the current hunger threshold is at the 30,000 TL level. It is estimated that by the end of 2026, this figure could rise to the 35,000–40,000 TL band.

According to this scenario, if a 25 percent raise is implemented, the minimum wage will be 27,630 TL and will continue to remain well below the hunger threshold.

Erdursun stated that minimum wage increases are not reflected equally in the salaries of all employees and made the following assessments:

Increases are gradually reducing the salary gap between employees.

Because actual inflation is higher than what is felt, price increases cannot be kept up with.

The possibility of additional premiums or support from the state is low.

It was stated that this situation could further weaken purchasing power throughout 2026.

The probable figures according to different raise rates are listed as follows:

20% raise: 26,524 TL

25% raise: 27,630 TL

30% raise: 28,735 TL

35% raise: 29,840 TL

40% raise: 30,945 TL

According to SGK expert Erdursun, the strongest possibility is in the 27,500–28,000 TL range.

Due to the expected low-rate increase, it is stated that the possibility of a second adjustment within 2026 may arise. Erdursun emphasized that the cost-of-living burden on fixed-income earners could become even heavier compared to previous years.