Social Security expert gives minimum wage figures with and without Erdoğan! 'If the President intervenes...'

With only a few days left until the new year, there is great curiosity about what the 2025 minimum wage hike will be.

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which held its first meeting on December 10, will meet for the second time today (December 16) at 14:30.

Social Security expert Özgür Erdursun evaluated the possible scenarios for the minimum wage hike in his column in the Dünya newspaper.

Here is the article by Erdursun, who provided figures for the minimum wage hike with and without Erdoğan:

"Millions of people are closely following what will happen to retirement pensions, the minimum wage, and severance pay in 2025.

The inflation difference for the second half of 2024 will be announced on January 3. An inflation difference of 17% will emerge for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, and 12% for civil servants and civil servant retirees.

It is unknown whether an additional welfare share or a flat-rate raise will be added to the inflation difference. I do not expect a flat-rate raise. However, a proportional welfare share could be added to the inflation difference.

I think the lowest completed pension, which is 12,500 TL, will be increased by 20% to 15,000 TL.

If a 17% inflation difference is granted, what will the retirement pensions be? If an 8-point welfare share is granted, bringing the increase rate for retirement pensions to 25%, what will the retirement pensions be?

According to all this data, you can see in the table below that the lowest retirement pension will be increased from 12,500 TL to 15,000 TL, and what the retirement pensions will be after 17% and 25% raises.

2025 minimum wage:

What the minimum wage will be in 2025 is also being closely followed.

For the minimum wage;

With a 20% increase, it would be 20,403 TL

With a 25% increase, it would be 21,253 TL

With a 30% increase, it would be 22,103 TL

With a 35% increase, it would be 22,953 TL

With a 40% increase, it would be 23,803 TL

With a 45% increase, it would be 24,654 TL

With a 50% increase, it would be 25,504 TL.

I think the minimum wage will be in the 22,000 TL band with a 30% increase, but if the President intervenes, it could be 23,000 TL.

THE ERDOĞAN FACTOR

In the past, the President has intervened when determining the minimum wage, and there have even been periods when he announced the minimum wage himself. The amount of support provided to the employer will also be extremely important when determining the minimum wage.

When we look at the Social Security Institution's insurance premium revenues, they have reached 248 billion 500 million TL per month. Considering that a 35% raise will be applied to the minimum wage and that other wages will also be raised at the same rates, there will be an increase of approximately 87 billion per month in the Social Security Institution's premium revenues.

If a minimum wage support of 2,000 TL per person is provided for the minimum wage, it would cost approximately 32 billion; even in this case, the Social Security Institution's revenue would increase by 55 billion. If there is a 35% increase with minimum wage support, the minimum wage would be 25,000 TL.

Employees would have more money in their pockets, the cost would be lower, and the state's income-expenditure balance would also be protected. If the government plans to make the minimum wage 25,000 TL, it could be 27,000 TL in that case.

In our country, there are workers in 2 million 191 thousand 292 businesses; 87.5% of these businesses employ between 1-9 workers, and the number of businesses employing 100 or more workers is at a very low rate of 9 per thousand of total businesses; therefore, minimum wage support is also of critical importance for tradespeople.