Global markets start the day mixed

While investors appear more cautious following last week's rally led by technology companies, it is believed that macroeconomic data to be released in the US throughout the week may provide signals regarding the steps the Fed will take in the coming periods.

Analysts stated that risk appetite in global equity markets remains low ahead of the growth data to be released in the US tomorrow, noting that the forward guidance of Fed officials is also in the focus of investors.

Reminding that it is considered a certainty in money markets that the Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged in March, analysts reported that the probability of the bank making its first interest rate cut is priced at 16 percent in May and 60 percent in June.

On the other hand, evaluating the developments within the scope of the CHIPS and Science Act, which was organized to increase chip production and scientific research on this subject in the US, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated that they believe investments in advanced technology logic chip production will put the country on a path to produce approximately 20 percent of the world's advanced logic chips at the end of 10 years.

The law includes 52.7 billion dollars in support for semiconductor production, as well as a 25 percent tax credit for 4 years to encourage the establishment of semiconductor factories.

Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated yesterday that medium-term growth expectations continue to remain weak, reporting that cooperation is necessary to revitalize trade, maximize the potential of artificial intelligence, prevent debt bottlenecks, and combat climate change.

According to data released in the US yesterday, new home sales failed to meet market expectations despite a 1.5 percent monthly increase in January to 661 thousand.

Following these developments, the US 10-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.28 percent yesterday, while it is hovering just below its previous close today.

The ounce price of gold, which completed the day with a 0.2 percent decrease at 2 thousand 32 dollars yesterday, is finding buyers at 2 thousand 34 dollars with a 0.1 percent increase at the moment.

While developments in the Middle East are also being closely followed, the volatility in oil prices is noteworthy. The barrel price of Brent oil, which closed the day at 81.7 dollars with a 1 percent increase yesterday, is trading at 81.6 dollars today, 0.1 percent below the previous close.

On the cryptocurrency market side, Bitcoin tested above 57 thousand dollars, reaching its highest level since December 2021, while news flow regarding MicroStrategy's 155 million dollar Bitcoin purchase was effective in this rise. Bitcoin has currently stabilized above 56 thousand dollars.

On the other hand, while US tech giant Microsoft announced a new partnership with OpenAI's French rival Mistral AI, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit to block the deal made by supermarket chain Kroger to acquire its rival Albertsons for 24.6 billion dollars on the grounds that it would increase market prices.

Yesterday, in the New York stock market, the Nasdaq index recorded a 0.13 percent decrease, the S&P 500 index a 0.38 percent decrease, and the Dow Jones index a 0.16 percent decrease. Index futures in the US started the new day with a mixed trend.

A negative trend also prevailed in European stock markets yesterday, with the exception of Germany.

Speaking about the European Central Bank (ECB) Annual Report at the European Parliament (EP) General Assembly session yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said they expect the decline in inflation to continue.

Reminding that economic activity in the Eurozone remained weak in 2023 and growth stagnated in the last quarter, Lagarde said, "Wage growth is expected to become an increasingly important factor in inflation dynamics in the coming quarters."

On the other hand, the euro/dollar parity, which has carried its upward trend to the 10th consecutive trading day, is currently at the 1.0860 level, just above its previous close.

Yesterday, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK lost 0.29 percent, the CAC 40 index in France 0.46 percent, and the MIB 30 index in Italy 0.44 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany recorded a 0.02 percent increase. Index futures in Europe started the new day with a mixed trend.

A mixed trend stood out in Asian equity markets.

The fact that inflation data released in Japan today came in above expectations increased expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could end its negative interest rate policy in the coming months.

In Japan, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.2 percent annually in January, while core CPI showed a 2 percent increase.

Following these developments, the dollar/yen parity fell to the 150.4 level with a 0.2 percent decrease.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.2 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.8 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong 0.1 percent.

In Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling trend domestically yesterday, the BIST 100 index completed the day with a 0.43 percent loss at 9,334.13 points, while it also carried its record high level to 9,450.48 points.

The dollar/TL, after completing the day at 31.1056, 0.2 percent above its previous close, following a buying trend yesterday, is trading at the 31.1400 level at the opening of the interbank market today.

On the other hand, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Fatih Karahan are expected to go to Brazil today to attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.

While Şimşek is expected to hold numerous bilateral meetings until Friday at the meeting to be held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the news flow on the subject will also be in the focus of investors.

Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm domestically today, while the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany and durable goods orders and housing price index data in the US will be followed abroad, noting that technically, the 9,400 and 9,500 levels are resistance and the 9,300 and 9,200 levels are support for the BIST 100 index.

News Source: AA