Global markets start the week with a mixed trend

Global markets began the week with a mixed trend as uncertainty persists regarding the timing and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), while investors are now focused on a busy data calendar, primarily the inflation data to be released in the US and the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision.

While risk appetite was seen to decline last week following hawkish guidance from Fed officials and data pointing to a tight labor market, it is estimated that clues regarding the Fed's future policies may be gleaned from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released in the country this week.

Analysts stated that major US banks are also expected to announce their balance sheets on Friday, adding that stock and sector-based volatility may increase this week.

Analysts, noting that despite the Fed keeping the policy rate in the 5.25-5.50 percent range—the highest level in 23 years—since July 2023 to combat inflation, the data released last week pointed to a strong stance in economic activity, said this has delayed pricing for a potential rate cut by the bank in June.

Analysts emphasized that the fact that non-farm payrolls in the country exceeded expectations with 303 thousand people in March and the unemployment rate fell from 3.9 percent to 3.8 percent on the last trading day of last week indicates that the tight stance in the labor market continues.

Following this data, the probability of the Fed making its first interest rate cut was priced at 48 percent for June and 67 percent for July in money markets.

Stating that the inflation data to be released in the country this week could cause changes in these prices, analysts reported that the CPI in the US is expected to increase by 0.3 percent monthly and 3.4 percent annually in March.

On the other hand, the US 10-year bond yield started the week at the 4.43 percent level with an increase of approximately 3 basis points, while the dollar index is at 104.4, 0.1 percent above its previous close.

GOLD STARTS THE NEW WEEK WITH AN INCREASE

The ounce price of gold completed last week with a 4.3 percent gain at 2,330 dollars, achieving its highest weekly close of all time, and started the new week with an upward trend, currently finding buyers at 2,342 dollars with a 0.5 percent increase.

The barrel price of Brent oil, on the other hand, completed the week at 90.5 dollars, increasing by 4.3 percent last week due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns, achieving its highest weekly close since October 2023.

Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement yesterday that victory is near and that the country would withdraw some troops from southern Gaza, the barrel price of Brent oil is trading at 89.5 dollars today, 1.1 percent below its previous close.

On Friday, the Nasdaq index rose by 1.24 percent, the S&P 500 index by 1.11 percent, and the Dow Jones index by 0.80 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. Index futures in the US started the new day with a mixed trend.

While a negative trend prevailed in European stock markets on the last trading day of last week, eyes have turned to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision this week.

Analysts reminded that it is considered certain that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, and said that clues regarding the steps the bank will take in the coming period will be sought from the statements to be made by ECB President Christine Lagarde after the meeting.

Stating that expectations that the bank may start interest rate cuts in June continue to remain strong, analysts said that the busy data calendar to be released across the region this week is also in the focus of investors.

On Friday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.81 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 1.24 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.11 percent, and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.29 percent. Index futures in Europe started the new week with a mixed trend.

In Asian stock markets, a positive trend stood out except for China, while it was noteworthy that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced it would provide 69 billion dollars in loans to support the field of science and technology.

Analysts stated that the Chinese government is expected to continue with stimulus packages to revive economic activity, and reported that the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Thailand, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are in the focus of investors this week.

In addition, Chinese Premier Li Qiang gave the message to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited his country, that economic and trade issues between the two countries should not be turned into matters of politics and security.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.50 percent on Friday in line with market expectations. Thus, the central bank has not changed its policy rate for seven consecutive meetings.

According to the data released today, the balance of payments in Japan remained below expectations at 2.6 trillion yen in February.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.8 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.2 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 0.2 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China fell by 0.2 percent.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-weighted trend on Friday, completed the day at a record level of 9,618.83 points with a gain of 5.37 percent.

The Dollar/TL, after completing the day at 32.0318, 0.4 percent above its previous close, following a buying-weighted trend on Friday, is trading at the 32.0020 level at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts noted that industrial production will be followed domestically today, while foreign trade balance and industrial production in Germany, and consumer inflation expectations in the US will be followed abroad, and recorded that from a technical perspective, the 9,700 and 9,800 levels are resistance, and 9,600 and 9,500 points are support for the BIST 100 index.

News Source: AA