HSBC stated in a note that its macro and fiscal assessments have remained "largely" unchanged, noting that if the Turkish Lira remains stable in real terms, the dollar/TL could end the year in the 37-40 range.
UK-based HSBC FX Strategist Murat Toprak and European FX Strategist Charlotte Ong announced their year-end forecasts for the dollar/TL in a note dated May 13.
In the published note, HSBC officials stated that they updated their dollar/TL forecasts based on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) new inflation forecast and the latest inflation expectations survey, adding that their macro and fiscal assessments have remained "largely" unchanged.
The note recorded that HSBC maintains its view that the dollar/TL will see slow and limited upward movement, and that they have not changed their year-end forecast of 36.
On the other hand, it was stated that if the TL remains stable in real terms, the dollar/TL could end the year in the 37-40 range.
The note recorded that while there was a period of high foreign exchange demand before the March local elections, the situation has normalized with the establishment of a better balance between foreign exchange demand and supply. Furthermore, it was announced that the high level of nominal interest rates and the emergence of positive real interest rates towards the end of the year will further increase demand for the TL in the coming months.
News Source: 12punto
