Is unemployment really decreasing?

In the labor force statistics for December 2025 released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent, reaching its lowest level in the last 20 years. However, this rate was met with surprise by the public because just one month earlier, in November, unemployment was at 8.6 percent. This rapid change has created a need, especially among economists, to examine the background of the data.

Economist Mahfi Eğilmez points out that the answer to the question, "Is unemployment really decreasing?" lies not on the surface of the numbers, but in the details. Eğilmez stated that the decline in the unemployment rate reveals a picture different from what it appears to be.

At a time when the population over the age of 15 continues to grow, the decrease in the labor force is noteworthy. According to TÜİK data, the labor force decreased by 1.2 percent within a year. This shows that despite the population growth in the country, fewer people are either employed or looking for work. On the other hand, there has been a slight decrease of 0.2 percent in employment. In other words, not only are new jobs not being created, but there is also a decline in the number of existing employees.

The most striking picture in the rates is the 11 percent loss in the number of unemployed people. The fact that unemployment decreases significantly at the same time as the labor force shrinks raises questions.

Mahfi Eğilmez summarizes the main reason for this paradox as follows: "Some people are giving up looking for work. Some lose hope, while others do not accept the proposed conditions. Some remain completely outside the system after losing their jobs."

Since individuals who stop looking for work are not included in the official unemployed category, this decrease in the total labor force mathematically lowers the unemployment rate. While the labor force participation rate decreased by 1.8 percent in the last year, the population outside the labor force increased by 3 percent.

The broad-based unemployment rate, however, remains unchanged at a high level of 28.6 percent. This data reveals that the fundamental problems in the economy have not disappeared; unemployment is only being made to look smaller through a narrower calculation method.

Eğilmez points out that the way for the economy to show healthy development is through the employment of people. He states that while official rates may appear to be corrected, the reality on the street has not changed: the fact that broad-based unemployment remains stagnant points to a structural problem.

At the end of his assessment, Mahfi Eğilmez includes a note in his own words: "An analysis by Prof. Dr. Reşit R. Serpkenci was influential in my bringing this issue to the agenda in this way. I would like to thank him."

News Source: 12punto