Markets wait in anticipation: Central Bank to announce interest rate decision today! Economists unite on a single forecast

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene under the chairmanship of Fatih Karahan.

The interest rate decision will be announced at 14:00 following the critical meeting that markets are closely watching.

In the MPC meeting held last month, the policy rate was kept steady at 50 percent.

WHAT WILL THE CBRT'S INTEREST RATE DECISION BE?

All economists participating in the expectation survey expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to keep the policy rate steady at 50 percent in November.

The expectation survey for the upcoming CBRT MPC meeting was concluded with the participation of 10 economists.

According to the survey results, all economists predict that the policy rate will be kept steady at 50 percent.

The average of the economists' year-end policy rate expectations was calculated as 49.10 percent.

Among the economists who shared their year-end expectations, 6 predicted that the policy rate would be 50 percent at the end of the year, 1 predicted 48.5 percent, and 3 predicted 47.5 percent.

WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMISTS?

As reported by Hürriyet, the Central Bank is expected to likely keep the policy rate steady. In today's decision text, policymakers may signal that a loosening cycle could begin as early as December.

According to all economists participating in the Bloomberg survey, the Monetary Policy Committee will leave the one-week repo rate unchanged at 50 percent on Thursday. However, policymakers are expected to soften the language used in the statement accompanying the decision, signaling that a downward move may be imminent.

The policy outlook has become blurred in recent months due to inflation figures that came in above estimates in September and October. Many analysts, following the release of this data, had pushed their interest rate cut forecasts to next year, having previously pointed to November.

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS POINT TO JANUARY FOR THE FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, including Ankit Jain, these changes point to "a slightly less hawkish monetary policy stance." The bank, which had previously forecast an interest rate cut in January, later changed its call to next month.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley continue to believe that the first interest rate cut will only take place in January.

While annual inflation fell to 48.6 percent in October, the Central Bank estimates the year-end level at 44 percent. However, policymakers prefer to look at seasonally adjusted monthly prices, and Bloomberg Economics sees a "significant decline" for this metric in November. Bloomberg Türkiye economist Selva Bahar Baziki stated that this could pave the way for cuts starting in December.

News Source: 12punto