The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its 2026 growth expectations for Turkey downwards in the October issue of its World Economic Outlook Report. The Fund projects that the Turkish economy will grow by 2.7 percent in 2026. The IMF's estimate in July was at the 2.9 percent level.
In the report, the 2027 growth forecast for Turkey was maintained at 3.6 percent. The IMF announced that it expects year-end inflation in Turkey to be 31.2 percent in 2026 and 26.5 percent in 2027.
The IMF, which raised its 2026 growth forecast for the global economy from 3 percent to 3.1 percent, kept its 2027 forecast at 3.4 percent. The report emphasized that the global economy has maintained its resilience, but this outlook is not evenly distributed among countries.
According to the IMF, economic activity in the first half of 2026 remained stronger than expected despite pressures created by the prolonged war in the Middle East and trade tensions. It was noted that the technology cycle, supported by artificial intelligence investments, was among the factors keeping demand alive.
EXPECTATION OF A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN GLOBAL INFLATION
The report noted that global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 due to the impact of temporary increases stemming from energy and food prices, and to decline to 4.1 percent in 2027.
It was projected that growth in global trade volume will slow down in 2026 and gain a more stable outlook in 2027. The IMF reported that factors such as the negative impact of tariffs, the adjustment process in production chains, and the strong course of technology-related trade are decisive in this outlook.
The report also stated that risks are tilted to the downside. A warning was issued that the continuation or escalation of tensions in the Middle East could increase volatility in energy and food prices, re-strengthen inflationary pressures, and create pressure on growth.
Regarding country forecasts, the 2026 growth expectation for the US economy was maintained at 2.3 percent, while the 2027 expectation was raised to 2.3 percent. In the Eurozone, the 2026 growth forecast was raised to 1.1 percent, while the 2027 forecast was left at 1.2 percent.
The IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for the Chinese economy to 4.5 percent and its 2027 forecast to 4 percent. For India, the growth expectation for both 2026 and 2027 was raised to 7 percent.
News Source: 12punto
