Reuters and AA surveys are out! How much will the Turkish economy grow this year?

Expectations have been set for both the Reuters and Anadolu Agency surveys regarding the Q1 2024 GDP figures for the Turkish economy, which will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Friday, May 31.

The Turkish economy is expected to grow between 5.9 and 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

Here are the results of the surveys conducted by both Reuters and Anadolu Agency:

REUTERS

The Turkish economy is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in the first quarter, driven by strong domestic consumption, while growth for the full year of 2024 is expected to remain at 3.2 percent with a more balanced composition.

According to the Reuters survey of 12 institutions, growth expectations for the first quarter of 2024 range between 5 and 7 percent. The Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2023, the period serving as the base for the data, and by 4.5 percent for the whole of last year.

Economists point out that despite the tightening monetary policy, demand brought forward ahead of the local elections held on March 31 contributed to economic growth in the first quarter.

The general expectation is that domestic consumption will slow down in the second half of the year. Economic management also states that a "more balanced growth composition" will be seen for the remainder of the year.

ANADOLU AGENCY

Economists participating in the AA Finance expectation survey estimate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 5.90 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter of this year.

The AA Finance expectation survey regarding the Q1 2024 GDP data, which will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Friday, May 31, was concluded with the participation of 14 economists.

According to the survey results, economists estimate that the Turkish economy grew by 5.90 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter of this year. The growth expectations of the economists participating in the survey for the first quarter of 2024 ranged between 4.20 percent and 7 percent.

The average of the economists' growth expectations for the full year of 2024 was 3.38 percent. Estimates regarding this expectation were recorded as a low of 2.90 percent and a high of 4 percent.

On the other hand, the average of the 14 economists' growth forecasts for the end of 2025 was 3.56 percent.

The Turkish economy had recorded 4 percent growth in both the first and fourth quarters of last year.

News Source: 12punto