Timing adjustment for natural gas and electricity hikes! July increase will not be reflected in inflation calculations

A significant increase has been implemented in natural gas prices for industrial and residential users. While prices for industrial consumers were raised by approximately 7.86 percent, residential subscribers saw an average hike of 24.6 percent. It had been noted that this hike was expected due to the growth in subsidies transferred from the budget to energy companies in recent years.

Former Central Bank Chief Economist Hakan Kara drew attention to the increases, stating that a total hike of 149 percent has been applied to natural gas prices since the period when interest rates were raised to 50 percent in March 2024.

The rise in additional resources transferred from the public budget to BOTAŞ under the name of "assignment expenses" is also noteworthy. In the first five months of 2025, a total of 79.4 billion liras was paid to BOTAŞ under this heading. These transfers had previously signaled that a hike in natural gas prices was coming.

WILL NOT AFFECT NEW SALARY INCREASES

The selection of July for the hike decision has become a separate subject of debate. This is because the six-month inflation data taken into account for annual salary, wage, and pension increases is finalized as of the end of June. This means that this hike in natural gas will not have any effect on the new salary increases to be announced at the beginning of July. The raises for civil servants, workers, and retirees will still be determined according to the January-June inflation, and the increase in natural gas prices will not be included in the calculation. Today, the inflation data for the January-June period is expected to be announced and the raise rates are expected to be clarified.

The fact that the high rate of increase for residences was timed for the summer period is also evaluated as a strategic choice. This is because natural gas consumption is at its lowest levels during the summer months. However, it is predicted that the real impact will be felt in the autumn and winter months when heating needs increase.

The price increase on the industrial side will be reflected in production costs in the coming period. This situation may lead to an increase in general price levels and an acceleration of inflation.

A similar picture has emerged in the electricity sector. In five months, a total of 85.6 billion liras was allocated to Elektrik Üretim AŞ (EÜAŞ) under the scope of "assignment expenses." Experts point to the possibility that this high transfer from the budget will be reflected as a hike in electricity prices in the near future.

News Source: 12punto