Expectations for the minimum wage are becoming clear: Another forecast follows TÜRK-İŞ's demand

The minimum wage increase, eagerly awaited by millions, continues to be the main topic on the agenda.

Following yesterday's Minimum Wage Determination Commission meeting, TÜRK-İŞ announced its 2025 minimum wage expectation during a press conference. On the same day, the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley also shared its projections regarding the matter.

TÜRK-İŞ'S DEMAND IS 74 PERCENT

TÜRK-İŞ President Ergün Atalay stated that they are demanding a 45 percent raise for the minimum wage in addition to a 20 percent welfare share. This amounts to a total increase of 74 percent.

While emphasizing that the workers' expectations must be met, Ergün Atalay noted that no concrete figure has been discussed yet in the third commission meeting. TÜRK-İŞ's demand as a net figure is 29,583 TL.

MORGAN STANLEY ANNOUNCES ITS FORECAST

The U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley shared its expectations regarding the minimum wage increase in Turkey in its report dated December 19.

The report drew attention to the statements made by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek regarding the disinflation process, stating that the minimum wage increase could be below 35 percent.

However, it was also stated that the possibility of a higher raise cannot be ruled out.

Morgan Stanley economists set their 2025 year-end inflation forecast at 26 percent, noting that this estimate is based on a minimum wage increase of approximately 30 percent.

They also emphasized that an additional 10-point raise could lead to an increase of 2-2.5 points in inflation expectations.

COULD AFFECT CENTRAL BANK DECISION

Morgan Stanley stated that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) could shape its interest rate decision at the upcoming December meeting based on the minimum wage increase.

While the bank anticipates a moderate interest rate cut, it assessed that the meeting could be passed over in the event of a high raise.

DECISION TO BE ANNOUNCED NEXT WEEK

The final decision regarding the minimum wage is expected to be announced next week.

TÜRK-İŞ's high raise demand and Morgan Stanley's projections will be decisive for millions of employees and employers, as well as for economic policies.