How much will the dollar be in 2025? Morgan Stanley has announced...

Morgan Stanley anticipates a more favorable entry level for Turkish banking stocks.

Morgan Stanley economists Hande Küçük and Nida Iqbal stated in a note they published, "The turning point story for Turkish bank margins continues, but this process has been pushed back slightly. Therefore, we are waiting for a more attractive entry point."

The note stated that the steps taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to control inflation would mean the implementation of tighter macroeconomic measures in the third quarter.

Furthermore, it was stated that rising reserve requirements are affecting the banks' margins.

INTEREST RATE CUT EXPECTED

Morgan Stanley economists expect the CBRT to make 250 basis point cuts to the policy rate starting in January.

Predicting that the interest rate will fall to 42.5 percent in March and 35 percent in June, the economists stated that interest rate cuts would then continue in smaller steps and that the real interest rate would be around 3 percent in line with realized inflation.

The economists revised their net income forecasts for Turkish banks for the 2025-2026 period downward by an average of 19 percent.

Finally, it was emphasized that the Turkish Lira carries the risk of strengthening against the dollar at the end of the year, above the previous forecast of 36. The bank's 2025 year-end dollar/TL forecast was recorded as 45.