Market participants' inflation expectations rise: Here is the new minimum wage forecast!

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has published the results of the November Market Participants Survey.

According to the survey results, the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which was 44.11 percent in the previous survey period, became 44.81 percent in this survey period.

The 12-month ahead CPI expectation, which was 27.44 percent in the previous survey period, became 27.20 percent in this survey period.

The 24-month ahead CPI expectation was 18.08 percent and 18.33 percent in the same survey periods, respectively.

In the November 2024 survey period, when evaluating participants' probability estimates for 12 months ahead, it was projected that the CPI would increase by an average probability of 33.93 percent in the 23.00 - 25.99 percent range, by 36.97 percent probability in the 26.00 - 28.99 percent range, and by 16.94 percent probability in the 29.00 - 31.99 percent range.

MINIMUM WAGE FORECAST UPDATED

The minimum wage is determined every year in December by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which includes a consortium of worker and employer representatives and Ministry officials.

It is being discussed that the target inflation and the Medium-Term Program (OVP) may also be taken as a basis this year for the minimum wage, which is determined annually based on inflation data.

HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE BE?

According to the market participants survey, the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which was 44.11 percent in the previous survey period, became 44.81 percent in this survey period. Accordingly, the minimum wage expectation has also risen.

If 44.81 percent is taken as the basis for the current minimum wage of 17 thousand 2 TL, it should be 24 thousand 620 TL and 59 kuruş.

However, it is being discussed that the employer side has an expectation between 25 and 30 percent.

If a raise at this rate is implemented, the 2025 minimum wage will be as follows:

If 25 percent: 21 thousand 252 TL

If 30 percent: 22 thousand 102 TL