The fate of Istanbul! Is the big earthquake coming? A surprising prediction from experts...

Turkish researcher Cemil Emre Yavaş, who works at Georgia Southern University in the USA, and his team have achieved a major success in the path toward predicting earthquakes in advance with an artificial intelligence algorithm they developed.

The algorithm developed by Yavaş and his team can predict earthquakes 30 days in advance with a 91.65 percent accuracy rate.

HIGH ACCURACY RATE FOR ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKES

While the AI-based algorithm was tested in the California region, which is in the US earthquake belt, it was also adapted and applied to Istanbul, known for its proximity to the North Anatolian Fault.

Yavaş and his team succeeded in predicting potential earthquakes in Istanbul 30 days in advance with a 91.65% accuracy rate.

WHEN IS THE BIG ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE?

The subject of the big Istanbul earthquake continues to be a source of concern for millions of citizens living in Istanbul, one of Turkey's largest cities.

While experts emphasize that an earthquake is inevitable for Istanbul, which is located on the North Anatolian Fault Line, they are making critical assessments regarding the date and magnitude of its occurrence.

Geologists and seismologists point out that the energy accumulation on the North Anatolian Fault Line has reached high levels, stating that a major earthquake could occur in Istanbul at any moment.

According to Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, an earthquake that could exceed a magnitude of 7.0 is expected in Istanbul within the next 30 years with a 65% probability. Although it is not known exactly when the earthquake will occur, it is stated that the 2020s and 2030s are critical years in terms of risk.

DRAWING ATTENTION TO ISTANBUL'S FAULT LINES

Istanbul is located close to the section of the North Anatolian Fault Line that passes through the Sea of Marmara. According to experts, the stress accumulated in this region has increased significantly following the 1999 Marmara Earthquake. Warnings are being issued that the risk is high, particularly in districts on the Marmara coast such as Avcılar, Bakırköy, and Silivri, and that damage during an earthquake could be extensive.

Officials and scientists underscore that urgent measures must be taken before the Big Istanbul Earthquake. The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) emphasize that steps must be taken rapidly, especially regarding building inspections and urban transformation projects.

As of 2024, the renewal process for many risky buildings in Istanbul is ongoing, but experts state that more structural transformation is needed.

Experts warn the public that being individually prepared for an earthquake is also of great importance. Emphasizing that preparing an earthquake kit, creating safe living spaces, and conducting drills for potential earthquake scenarios can be life-saving, experts state that social awareness on this issue needs to increase.