The latest on gold and the dollar following the Haniyeh assassination...

Markets opened today under the shadow of Middle East tensions. Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, where he was attending an inauguration ceremony. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision today at 21:00.

On such a critical and busy day, the dollar exchange rate accelerated its rise above 33 TL, climbing to 33.11 TL. The Euro/TL exchange rate remains flat at 35.84 TL.

The Fed is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged today. Markets are pricing in the start of interest rate cuts by the Fed beginning in September. However, Bank of America economists reported that the Fed will not take any steps toward interest rate cuts until it sees that inflation is heading toward 2 percent.

Following the Fed's decision, markets will focus on how hawkish or dovish the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be during his press conference.

While a Fed interest rate cut in September was being discussed, interest rate cuts began to be talked about in the skies of Turkish markets in the same way. The justification for this was inflation, which has been declining since June and is expected to fall to 40 percent by the end of the year. However, both CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan and CBRT Deputy Governor Osman Cevdet Akçay made statements that dampened expectations for an early interest rate cut.

Speaking to Bloomberg in Istanbul in recent weeks, Governor Fatih Karahan commented on the inflation decline in June, stating, "It would not be healthy to draw conclusions from a single data point."

Speaking to Reuters, Osman Cevdet Akçay stated that "an interest rate cut is not on the agenda" and added, "Even when interest rate cuts begin, a tight monetary policy will be maintained."

Cevdet Akçay had stated, "An interest rate cut will not be on the agenda until a permanent decline is observed in the underlying trend of monthly inflation and other indicators we closely monitor accompany this."

Meanwhile, in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes published yesterday, the CBRT signaled that inflation would show a temporary increase in July. The CBRT announced that leading indicators point to energy, unprocessed food, and alcohol-tobacco groups as the items that will drive monthly consumer inflation upward in July.

In global markets, the Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 0.25 percent following 10 years of ultra-loose monetary policy and announced that it will reduce bond purchases in the 2025-2026 period.

Oil prices rose by 1.65 percent due to Middle East tensions ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, while the dollar fell to 104.12 against other currencies.