Bahçeli had called on Akşener... A 'Do not support' message to IYI Party from CHP's Gökhan Günaydın

The People's Alliance, which wants to make constitutional amendments, needs 360 votes for a constitutional amendment with a referendum. For an amendment without a referendum, it needs to reach 400 votes. For this reason, the government needs parties outside the alliance.

In this context, the first move came from MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli. Bahçeli used the following words regarding IYI Party Chair Meral Akşener, who is heading to an extraordinary congress: "I think that Ms. Meral Akşener should give up on separating, remain at the head of the party, and be surrounded by the friends who support her and contribute to her projects."

CHP Group Deputy Chairman Gökhan Günaydın stated in a post on his social media account that the election results obtained on March 31 disrupted all of the government's plans. Interpreting the parliamentary arithmetic, Günaydın also issued a call to the IYI Party. Günaydın's statement is as follows:

"On March 17, 2024, Bahçeli said to Erdoğan, 'You cannot leave, you cannot leave the Turkish Nation alone'; on April 10, 2024, he said to Akşener, 'I think she should give up on the decision to separate, continue at the head of the party, and that those who are thinking of becoming candidates should unite around her.'

These statements, which might seem strange at first glance, carry an explainable quality when considered together with the established and maintained regime systematics.

During the budget negotiations, while MHP Deputy Chairman Feti Yıldız was explaining in detail and shaking his finger at the entire opposition how and in what direction they would change the Constitution, we turned to the 265 AKP deputies and said: 'Listen, the MHP is explaining how it will change the Constitution, listen well, take notes.'

The anecdote I quoted above concretely demonstrates how the MHP, relying on its relatively low but essential voting power for the AKP, has established dominance at the key points of the system.

The Presidential Government System, where there is no balance and oversight, while on one hand gifting the partners of the People's Alliance a lawless administrative power, on the other hand, provides an opportunity for those who hold the reins to reap excessive benefits.

However, the People's Alliance, aware of the erosion in its legitimacy in the eyes of the citizens, was also feeling the increasingly growing threats to the continuation of the regime in its bones. The regime was practically in need of a balance adjustment.

The remedy was an urgent constitutional amendment. By sweetening the deal with various additions to appeal to the palates of parties on different wings of the parliamentary spectrum, two things would primarily be guaranteed: One, the 50+1 requirement necessary for election would be lowered by 10 points; Two, Erdoğan's term limit would be removed. Thus, doing more within a 'democracy' similar to those in Russia or Azerbaijan would just be a matter of time planning.

The March 31 elections disrupted all these plans. Turkey practically turned back from the brink of the abyss with the March 31 elections.

Let us flesh out what we have said within the parliamentary systematics: As is known, 360 votes are needed for a constitutional amendment with a referendum. This number is 400 for an amendment without a referendum.

The two parties that could vote without hesitation alongside the AKP and MHP for any constitutional amendment proposal are the 4-seat HÜDA PAR and the 1-seat DSP. Thus, their total votes become 320. In my opinion, one should be cautious about putting the 4-seat New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah) into the guaranteed partner category for constitutional amendment after the stance it displayed in the elections.

The People's Alliance also has one eye on the 15 DEVA and 3 Democrat Party deputies who do not have a group, as well as the 20-member Felicity/Future (Saadet/Gelecek) group that entered Parliament from CHP lists and formed a group. It would not be wrong to assess that the deputies belonging to the parties we counted, whose personal attitudes we have witnessed in Parliament alongside the harsh opposition the Felicity/Future group has made in Parliament, will not say yes to an amendment that would lead to the further entrenchment of the current order in the political psychology environment created by the election results.

Needless to say, the CHP's 126 deputies, reduced after some were elected as mayors, will not allow an amendment that would give a new kiss of life to the People's regime.

The Labor and Freedom Alliance, in which DEM, EMEP, DBP, and TİP participate with a total of 65 deputies, will also display a similar stance. The pointlessness of seeking the solution to the Kurdish issue in Erdoğan is a justified judgment that has long been adopted by society before the politicians. In this context, the 'freedom sauces' that could be added to a possible constitutional amendment have long since lost their magic.

In this picture, the only exit channel for the People's Alliance is cooperation with a 37-seat IYI Party that would act collectively if possible. Only in this case, with the contributions they could also receive from independents, could they dream of 360.

Undoubtedly, the IYI Party boards will decide what to do as a political party. However, I am of the opinion that it has been learned through experience that supporting a regime trying to play into extra time will not benefit anyone."

News Source: 12punto